Washington College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 55.05 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.113 rating points from 24 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–76 (33%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 6–35 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 5–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 16–9 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 0–11 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 10–5 | 0–2 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (98 matches) the record is 27–71 against 23.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 3.24 | 2–19 | 1.4 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 2016-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 2.16 | 4–16 | 5.8 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.69 | 3.30 | 4–3 | 3.2 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 2.02 | 1–13 | 1.5 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.56 | -1.21 | 1–3 | 2.6 | −3.78 | 3.1 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 4.56 | 7–3 | 3.1 | +2.19 | 6.1 | <1% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.24 | 3.82 | 8–3 | 5.5 | +1.58 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | -1.06 | 0–11 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| The Leroy Grant | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 3.25 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.6 | 3.10 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.9 | 1.55 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 2.12 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.2 | 2.77 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.0 | 1.87 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 3.16 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 14.2 | 2.37 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 3.06 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.8 | 3.05 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.9 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 14.6 | 2.33 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.5 | 1.85 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.9 | 1.10 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | 2.25 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.92 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | 3.00 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.0 | 1.77 |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 3.98 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.4 | 2.26 |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 2.90 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.8 | 2.22 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.7 | 2.06 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 3.04 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.3 | 2.30 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 20 | 16.0 | 1.08 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 2.09 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 2.35 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.4 | 2.02 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | 2.07 |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | 1.54 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.5 | 2.08 |
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 2.87 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.9 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.9 | 0.85 |
| Riley Cup | Crew | A, B | 8 | 5.9 | — |
| MAISA Central qualifer | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.5 | 2.74 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.1 | 2.46 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Crew | A, B | 6 | 11.3 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 16.0 | 1.12 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 1.09 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
