| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 7–3 |
| 3 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 2–8 |
| 5 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 31 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.462 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Washington College Shoremen | 8.53 | 10.10 | 8–3 | 5.5 | +1.58 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 10.67 | 10.74 | 9–1 | 8.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 6.94 | 6.93 | 2–8 | 2.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 5 | George Washington University Colonials | 7.07 | 6.91 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 7.70 | 7.30 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 9.95 | 8.85 | 7–4 | 8.7 | −1.09 | 1.4 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Shoremen | 2 | Midshipmen | Colonials | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 8–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 8–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Shoremen | 2 | Midshipmen | Colonials | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 8–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 5–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 8–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 0–5 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| George Washington University Colonials | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Shoremen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Privateers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Privateers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Shoremen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | Alexander Curtiss '16 Jacob La Dow '15 Nicholas Clemence '15 |
Shelby Jacobs '17 Greer Wattson '17 Kaitlyn Noreen '16 |
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Charles Nunn '16 Eric Siegel '16 Ryan Bailey '15 |
Alexandra Crawford '16 Matthew Mcdermaid '17 Karlyn Long '17 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | Bradley Adam '17 Edmund Cooper '17 Thomas Galster '15 |
Julia Monro '17 John Boot '15 Rachel Ryan '15 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Hannah Hughes '17 Marissa Lihan '14 Philip Youngberg '15 Spencer Nora '17 |
Aaron Hull '16 Molly Hanson '17 Megan Hough '16 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Colin Kennedy '17 Daniel Delbello '17 Maria Sinagra '16 |
Sarah Mccormack '14 Meagan Murphy '15 Matthew Ricci '15 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | John Nothacker '16 Matthew Schoene '15 Nick Valente '16 |
James Lane '17 Carly Mayhood '17 Zachery Harris '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
