Washington College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 85.18 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.082 rating points from 273 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 41–27 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | — | 12–9 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | — | 0–1 |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | — | 29–17 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 13–20 against 12.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | crew | 3.02 | 1.71 | 4–3 | 5.3 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | crew | 1.88 | -1.12 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | crew | 2.90 | 4.47 | 8–3 | 5.5 | +1.58 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | crew | 2.92 | 2.24 | 1–11 | 1.7 | −0.69 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 8.0 | — |
| KP Dinghy Open | Crew | B | 10 | 7.8 | — |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 14.0 | — |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Crew | A | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 12.4 | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Crew | A | 5 | 12.8 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 9.1 | — |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Crew | A | 6 | 10.8 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | B | 14 | 12.7 | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | A, B | 6 | 9.3 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A | 11 | 10.7 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 11.2 | — |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Crew | A | 18 | 12.5 | — |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 12.1 | — |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A, B | 20 | 16.2 | — |
| Moody | Crew | A | 10 | 11.8 | — |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 14.4 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 14.8 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A | 12 | 16.5 | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| MAISA Spring Open | Crew | A | 8 | 3.6 | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 22 | 27% | — |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 13 | 6.5 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta | Crew | B | 7 | 16.9 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | A | 6 | 2.7 | — |
| Navy Fall | Crew | B | 10 | 11.8 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Champs Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 10.9 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 15.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
