Captain Prosser Trophy

HostHobart & William Sm
Date04/06/2013
TypeConference Championship
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	14–3
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–3
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	11–6
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9–8
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	6–8
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–8
7	Cornell University	Big Red	1–13
8	Washington College	Shoremen	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,311 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 62 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.383 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 70% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	12.45 school +0.06	Chris Barnard / Hilary Kenyon 4.47 11–3 Alex Post / Victoria Lynch 3.59 11–3 Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.37 11–3 Chris Barnard / Nancy Hagood 4.35 3–0 Alex Post / Sean Golden 3.52 3–0 Nevin Snow / John Andril 4.04 3–0	89%	14–3 (82%)	−1.1
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	11.43 school +0.34	Fletcher Sims / Mayumi Roller 3.89 9–3 Joshua Greenslade / Kayla Mccomb 3.99 9–3 John Wallace / Katherine Gluskin 3.35 9–3 Jacob La Dow / Mayumi Roller 3.29 5–0 Joshua Greenslade / Fletcher Sims 3.92 5–0 John Wallace / Ben Lezin 3.42 5–0	69%	14–3 (82%)	+2.3
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	10.67	Mary Hall / Jocelynn Knudsen 3.83 5–6 Devin Laviano / Glenn Mckenna 3.25 9–2 Taylor Vann / Glenn Mckenna 3.33 2–4 Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.62 2–4 Michael Grove / Elizabeth Morrison 3.61 3–2 Mary Hall / Alexandra Asuncion 3.84 4–0 Taylor Vann / Elizabeth Morrison 3.42 4–0 Taylor Vann / Michael Popp 3.37 2–0 Michael Grove / George Prieto 3.56 2–0	54%	11–6 (65%)	+1.8
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3	10.77 school +0.06, home +0.38	Eddie Cox / Catherine Pelo 3.12 9–5 Johnny Norfleet / Bridget Nannig 3.87 9–2 Louis Padnos / Jane Rew 3.46 9–2 Johnny Norfleet / Kathryn Moloney 3.90 0–6 Louis Padnos / Michael Deady 3.45 0–3 Eddie Cox / William Godfrey 3.17 0–3 Wheeler Morris / Michael Deady 0–3	60%	9–8 (53%)	−1.2
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	9.33 school −0.34	Harry Scott / Emma Lamontagne 3.54 Tyler Steel / Christopher Whalen 3.07 Nick Valente / George Roberson 3.01	33%	6–8 (43%)	+1.3
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	9.85 school −0.15	Dillon Paiva / Chloe Constants 3.76 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.56 6–4 Zach Runci / Jill Fattibene 2.72 6–4 Esteban Forrer / Joseph David 3.34 0–4 Zach Runci / Cooper Paiva 2.61 0–4	45%	6–8 (43%)	−0.3
7	Cornell University Big Red	7	8.55 school +0.19	Lauren Turner / Gregory Reppucci 3.05 Duncan Howes / Devon Furlong 2.84 1–11 Alden Sonnenfeldt / Claire Riedman 2.45 1–11 Duncan Howes / Rebecca Macies 2.66 0–2 Alden Sonnenfeldt / Collin Clark 2.25 0–2	19%	1–13 (7%)	−1.6
8	Washington College Shoremen	8	8.36 school +0.18	Samuel Bedinger / Matt Lawler 2.19 Sam Fitzgerald / Blair Towers 3.04 Ryan Bailey / Alexandra Crawford 2.92 1–11 Ryan Bailey / Eric Siegel 2.82 0–2	16%	1–13 (7%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.43	12.41	14–3	11.7	+0.98	1.6	13%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.67	11.29	11–6	9.2	+0.62	0.8	22%
5	SUNY Maritime College	9.33	9.94	6–8	4.7	+0.61	0.6	28%
6	Old Dominion University	9.85	9.71	6–8	6.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.77	10.33	9–8	10.2	−0.44	0.4	85%
1	Georgetown University	12.45	11.89	14–3	15.0	−0.56	0.4	89%
8	Washington College	8.36	7.37	1–13	2.2	−0.99	0.8	93%
7	Cornell University	8.55	7.27	1–13	2.6	−1.27	1.3	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.29	6.29	5–0	3.1	≥+3.00	3.3	8%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.99	4.97	14–3	11.7	+0.98	1.6	13%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.35	4.33	14–3	11.7	+0.98	1.6	13%
Taylor Vann	U. S. Naval Academy	3.33	4.26	8–4	6.2	+0.93	1.2	17%
Devin Laviano	U. S. Naval Academy	3.25	3.96	9–2	7.8	+0.70	0.6	32%
Harry Scott	SUNY Maritime College	3.54	4.15	6–8	4.7	+0.61	0.6	28%
Tyler Steel	SUNY Maritime College	3.07	3.68	6–8	4.7	+0.61	0.6	28%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.01	3.62	6–8	4.7	+0.61	0.6	28%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.62	4.14	7–6	5.7	+0.52	0.5	30%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.83	4.26	9–6	7.9	+0.43	0.3	35%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.89	4.17	9–3	8.6	+0.28	0.1	53%
Dillon Paiva	Old Dominion University	3.76	3.62	6–8	6.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.56	3.42	6–8	6.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Zach Runci	Old Dominion University	2.72	2.58	6–8	6.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Louis Padnos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.46	3.11	9–5	9.9	−0.35	0.2	82%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.12	2.68	9–8	10.2	−0.44	0.4	85%
Chris Barnard	Georgetown University	4.47	3.92	14–3	15.0	−0.56	0.4	89%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.59	3.03	14–3	15.0	−0.56	0.4	89%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.37	3.81	14–3	15.0	−0.56	0.4	89%
Samuel Bedinger	Washington College	2.19	1.20	1–13	2.2	−0.99	0.8	93%
Ryan Bailey	Washington College	2.92	1.93	1–13	2.2	−0.99	0.8	93%
Sam Fitzgerald	Washington College	3.04	2.04	1–13	2.2	−0.99	0.8	93%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.84	1.56	1–13	2.6	−1.27	1.3	96%
Lauren Turner	Cornell University	3.05	1.78	1–13	2.6	−1.27	1.3	96%
Alden Sonnenfeldt	Cornell University	2.45	1.17	1–13	2.6	−1.27	1.3	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Cornell University	98%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	45%	upset
1	3	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	96%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	91%
1	6	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	8	Old Dominion University	Washington College	83%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	88%
1	10	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	73%
1	12	Cornell University	Washington College	55%
1	13	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	80%
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	93%
1	16	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	79%
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	18	Georgetown University	Washington College	98%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	83%
1	20	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	95%
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	90%
1	22	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	93%
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	51%
1	24	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	76%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	65%
1	26	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
1	27	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	74%
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	79%
2	29	Georgetown University	Cornell University	98%
2	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
2	31	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
2	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	96%
2	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	91%
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	15%	upset
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	91%
2	36	Old Dominion University	Washington College	83%
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	87%
2	38	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
2	39	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	27%	upset
2	40	Washington College	Cornell University	44%	upset
2	41	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	80%
2	43	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	93%
2	44	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	79%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	46	Georgetown University	Washington College	98%
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	83%
2	48	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	95%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	90%
2	50	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	7%	upset
2	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	51%
2	52	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	74%
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	63%
2	54	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
2	55	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	75%
2	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	79%
3	57	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
3	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
3	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	16%	upset
3	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	51%
3	61	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
3	62	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Privateers	Monarchs	Red	Shoremen
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Privateers	Monarchs	Red	Shoremen
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Washington College Shoremen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Statesmen
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–1	✕	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–1	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	W	L	✕	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
3	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
4	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
7	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
8	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
11	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
12	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
15	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
19	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
20	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
21	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Shoremen	2-4-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
23	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
24	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
26	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6 DNF
27	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Shoremen	2-5-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
29	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
30	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
31	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
33	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
34	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
36	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
37	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
38	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
39	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
40	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
41	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
42	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
43	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
47	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
48	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
50	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
51	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
52	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
53	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
54	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
55	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
57	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
58	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
60	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
61	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Chris Barnard '13 Nevin Snow '16	Victoria Lynch '13 Sean Golden '16 Hilary Kenyon '13 Nancy Hagood '14 Katia Dasilva '15 John Andril '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Jacob La Dow '15 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Mayumi Roller '13 Katherine Gluskin '13 Ben Lezin '13 Kayla Mccomb '13 Fletcher Sims '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Devin Laviano '13 Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Taylor Vann '13	Glenn Mckenna '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Jocelynn Knudsen '13 Elizabeth Morrison '14 George Prieto '13 Michael Popp '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Johnny Norfleet '13 Louis Padnos '14 Wheeler Morris '16	Catherine Pelo '13 William Godfrey '16 Bridget Nannig '13 Kathryn Moloney '13 Jane Rew '14 Michael Deady '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Harry Scott '13 Nick Valente '16 Tyler Steel '13	Emma Lamontagne '14 George Roberson '15 Christopher Whalen '15
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dillon Paiva '13 Esteban Forrer '16 Zach Runci '13	Chloe Constants '14 Julia Wiesner '14 Joseph David '16 Jill Fattibene '14 Cooper Paiva '16
Cornell University	Big Red	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 Duncan Howes '15 Lauren Turner '13	Claire Riedman '16 Collin Clark '14 Devon Furlong '13 Rebecca Macies '14 Gregory Reppucci '15
Washington College	Shoremen	Ryan Bailey '15 Sam Fitzgerald '14 Samuel Bedinger '13	Alexandra Crawford '16 Eric Siegel '16 Blair Towers '15 Matt Lawler '13

Conditions — 04/06/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

39°F

↑ 45°F ↓ 29°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 4.6 kn

Gusts to 13.2 kn

From ENE (64°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1026.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Hobart & William Sm — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hobart & William Sm in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled fleet-race days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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