Cornell University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 (fleet 1.40) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–34 (28%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 13–34 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 0–2 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 13–34 against 8.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 1.49 | 2.51 | 2–10 | 0.9 | +1.02 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 1.76 | 3.56 | 3–3 | 0.9 | +1.79 | 3.0 | 5% |
| 2014-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | 1.67 | 5–10 | 5.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.35 | 2.52 | 3–11 | 1.3 | +1.17 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 1.11 |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | 0.81 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.1 | 1.96 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 1.96 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | -0.88 |
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 1.08 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 0.31 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 8.1 | — |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.8 | -0.85 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.1 | 0.64 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.5 | -0.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
