John Jackson Team Race Regatta

HostGeorgetown
Date03/08/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	15–2
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–3
3	Connecticut College	Camels	11–6
4	Boston University	Terriers	9–8
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	7–7
6	Cornell University	Big Red	3–11
6	George Washington University	Colonials	3–11
8	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,294 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 62 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.353 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 65% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.61 school −0.05, home +0.31	Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.85 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.50 Aj Reiter / Eliana Michaels 3.23 9–1 Massimo Mazzolini / Katie Olsen 2.53 6–1	88%	15–2 (88%)	−0.0
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	10.40 school +0.34	Nicholas Clemence / Shelby Jacobs 3.48 Alexander Curtiss / Mariah Leffingwell 3.31 Ian Liberty / Marissa Golison 3.19	70%	14–3 (82%)	+2.1
3	Connecticut College Camels	3	10.35 school +0.30	Jordan Bothwick / Victoria Allen 2.77 Kevin Martland / Lea Bushnell 3.81 Ig Schottlaender / Grace Medley 3.37 7–3 Bryce Kopp / David Rex 3.17 2–3 Bryce Kopp / Grace Medley 3.46 2–0	67%	11–6 (65%)	−0.4
4	Boston University Terriers	5	9.11	Cameron Fraser / Kayla Lynch 2.89 6–3 Brendan Cook / Hannah Callahan 6–3 Ryan Astwood / Joseph Benoit 3.36 6–3 Cameron Fraser / Lindsey Kennett 2.90 3–5 Brendan Cook / Kayla Lynch 3–5 Ryan Astwood / Hannah Callahan 3.35 3–5	43%	9–8 (53%)	+1.6
5	Stanford University Cardinal	4	9.44 school +0.20	Scott Buckstaff / Katie Walker 2.77 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Yuki Yoshiyasu Axel Sly / John Cannistraro 3.24	56%	7–7 (50%)	−0.9
6	Cornell University Big Red	8	6.56	Duncan Howes / Perry Goodman 2.72 Colin Keil / Gregory Reppucci 2.05 Collin Clark / Sonia Guior	9%	3–11 (21%)	+1.7
6	George Washington University Colonials	6	7.86 school −0.14	Daniel Delbello / Meagan Murphy 2.80 Colin Kennedy / Matthew Ricci 2.20 Brendan Shanahan / Henry Young	27%	3–11 (21%)	−0.8
8	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	7	7.66 school −0.44	Nick Valente / Paige Conlin 3.63 Arthur Libby / Christopher Whalen 2.65 John Nothacker / Carly Mayhood 1.73	24%	0–14 (0%)	−3.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Cornell University	6.56	7.74	3–11	1.3	+1.17	1.6	12%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.40	11.31	14–3	11.9	+0.90	1.3	16%
4	Boston University	9.11	9.75	9–8	7.4	+0.64	0.8	23%
1	Georgetown University	11.61	11.59	15–2	15.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
3	Connecticut College	10.35	10.19	11–6	11.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
5	Stanford University	9.44	9.03	7–7	7.9	−0.40	0.3	83%
6	George Washington University	7.86	7.40	3–11	3.8	−0.46	0.2	84%
8	SUNY Maritime College	7.66	4.66	0–14	3.4	≤−3.00	6.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.72	3.90	3–11	1.3	+1.17	1.6	12%
Colin Keil	Cornell University	2.05	3.23	3–11	1.3	+1.17	1.6	12%
Collin Clark	Cornell University	1.35	2.52	3–11	1.3	+1.17	1.6	12%
Nicholas Clemence	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.48	4.38	14–3	11.9	+0.90	1.3	16%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.31	4.21	14–3	11.9	+0.90	1.3	16%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.19	4.09	14–3	11.9	+0.90	1.3	16%
Cameron Fraser	Boston University	2.89	3.53	9–8	7.4	+0.64	0.8	23%
Brendan Cook	Boston University	2.69	3.32	9–8	7.4	+0.64	0.8	23%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.36	4.00	9–8	7.4	+0.64	0.8	23%
Massimo Mazzolini	Georgetown University	2.53	2.87	6–1	5.7	+0.33	0.1	62%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.17	3.50	4–3	3.7	+0.33	0.1	58%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.85	4.83	15–2	15.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.50	3.48	15–2	15.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.77	2.62	11–6	11.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	3.81	3.66	11–6	11.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Scott Buckstaff	Stanford University	2.77	2.37	7–7	7.9	−0.40	0.3	83%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.03	2.63	7–7	7.9	−0.40	0.3	83%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.24	2.84	7–7	7.9	−0.40	0.3	83%
Ig Schottlaender	Connecticut College	3.37	2.91	7–3	7.7	−0.46	0.2	85%
Daniel Delbello	George Washington University	2.80	2.34	3–11	3.8	−0.46	0.2	84%
Colin Kennedy	George Washington University	2.20	1.74	3–11	3.8	−0.46	0.2	84%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	2.79	2.33	3–11	3.8	−0.46	0.2	84%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.23	2.77	9–1	9.3	−0.47	0.1	86%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.63	0.63	0–14	3.4	≤−3.00	6.8	>99%
Arthur Libby	SUNY Maritime College	2.65	-0.35	0–14	3.4	≤−3.00	6.8	>99%
John Nothacker	SUNY Maritime College	1.73	-1.27	0–14	3.4	≤−3.00	6.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	George Washington University	99%
1	2	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	19%	upset
1	3	Connecticut College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	48%	upset
1	4	Boston University	Stanford University	41%	upset
1	5	Georgetown University	Cornell University	100%
1	6	Connecticut College	George Washington University	93%
1	7	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	85%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	79%
1	9	Connecticut College	Cornell University	98%
1	10	Georgetown University	Stanford University	86%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	93%
1	12	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	81%
1	13	Connecticut College	Stanford University	68%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	98%
1	15	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	16	Boston University	George Washington University	79%
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	73%
1	18	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	19	Cornell University	George Washington University	21%	upset
1	20	Georgetown University	Boston University	96%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	22	Stanford University	George Washington University	83%
1	23	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	85%
1	24	Boston University	Cornell University	91%
1	25	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	55%
1	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	31%	upset
1	27	Stanford University	Cornell University	95%
1	28	Connecticut College	Boston University	80%
2	29	Georgetown University	George Washington University	98%
2	30	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	26%	upset
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	50%
2	32	Boston University	Stanford University	44%	upset
2	33	Georgetown University	Cornell University	99%
2	34	Connecticut College	George Washington University	93%
2	35	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	86%
2	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	76%
2	37	Connecticut College	Cornell University	98%
2	38	Georgetown University	Stanford University	85%
2	39	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	92%
2	40	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	83%
2	41	Stanford University	Connecticut College	33%	upset
2	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	98%
2	43	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
2	44	Boston University	George Washington University	79%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	71%
2	46	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	94%
2	47	George Washington University	Cornell University	78%
2	48	Georgetown University	Boston University	94%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	94%
2	50	Stanford University	George Washington University	83%
2	51	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	84%
2	52	Boston University	Cornell University	92%
2	53	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	57%
2	54	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
2	55	Stanford University	Cornell University	94%
2	56	Boston University	Connecticut College	21%	upset
2	57	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
2	58	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	16%	upset
2	59	Georgetown University	Boston University	94%
2	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	50%	upset
2	61	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	75%
2	62	Connecticut College	Boston University	78%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Camels	Terriers	Cardinal	Red	Colonials	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Camels	Terriers	Cardinal	Red	Colonials	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	9–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	5–5	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	5–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
2	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
3	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
4	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
6	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
9	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
11	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
12	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
13	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
16	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
17	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
18	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
19	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
23	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
24	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
25	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
26	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
28	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
30	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
31	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
32	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
34	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
35	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
37	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
38	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
39	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
40	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
44	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
46	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
47	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
52	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
53	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
55	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
56	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
57	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
58	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
60	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
61	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
62	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Massimo Mazzolini '17 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Eliana Michaels '14 Katie Olsen '15 Katia Dasilva '15 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Nicholas Clemence '15	Mariah Leffingwell '16 Marissa Golison '16 Shelby Jacobs '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Ig Schottlaender '14 Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14	David Rex '14 Grace Medley '15 Victoria Allen '16 Lea Bushnell '15
Boston University	Terriers	Brendan Cook '16 Cameron Fraser '14 Ryan Astwood '16	Kayla Lynch '16 Hannah Callahan '16 Lindsey Kennett '15 Joseph Benoit '16
Stanford University	Cardinal	Axel Sly '16 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Scott Buckstaff '17	John Cannistraro '17 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16 Katie Walker '14
Cornell University	Big Red	Colin Keil '15 Collin Clark '14 Duncan Howes '15	Gregory Reppucci '15 Sonia Guior '15 Perry Goodman '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Colin Kennedy '17 Daniel Delbello '17	Henry Young '16 Matthew Ricci '15 Meagan Murphy '15
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Arthur Libby '17 John Nothacker '16 Nick Valente '16	Christopher Whalen '15 Carly Mayhood '17 Paige Conlin '14

Conditions — 03/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1013.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu