Connecticut College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.51 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 77–72 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 17–9 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 27–30 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 17–24 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (149 matches) the record is 77–72 against 70.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.9). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 3.47 | 3.84 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.71 | 8–6 | 7.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.53 | 4.44 | 7–11 | 3.9 | +0.91 | 2.1 | 7% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.33 | 4.27 | 7–8 | 4.2 | +0.94 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.58 | 4.54 | 8–2 | 6.5 | +0.96 | 1.0 | 22% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.56 | 3.10 | 5–9 | 6.3 | −0.46 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.51 | 4.15 | 6–5 | 4.8 | +0.64 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.46 | 2.12 | 1–4 | 2.1 | −1.34 | 1.0 | 96% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.11 | 2.04 | 4–12 | 7.3 | −1.07 | 2.5 | 98% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.50 | 2.81 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −0.69 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.17 | 3.50 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.45 | 4.02 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 4.11 | 10–4 | 7.5 | +0.90 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 3.37 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.9 | 4.06 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.4 | 3.80 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.6 | 3.62 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 3.77 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.9 | 3.05 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.1 | 3.29 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.0 | 2.94 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.4 | 3.19 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.4 | 3.79 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.9 | 4.96 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.30 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.1 | 4.04 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.2 | 2.79 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.3 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 3.36 |
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.7 | 2.83 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 3.59 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 3.09 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 3.23 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.0 | 4.05 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 3.51 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.9 | 3.08 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 3.29 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 3.08 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 2.85 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 27% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.0 | 3.26 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 3.26 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 3.56 |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.8 | 3.00 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 4.10 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 11.1 | 2.58 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 3.23 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.9 | 3.79 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.0 | 3.26 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.9 | 3.77 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.3 | 2.88 |
| Southern Series Five | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 2.53 |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.3 | 3.55 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 3.80 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.4 | 2.14 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 2.92 |
| Harmon Cup 2012 Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 3.7 | — |
| Gardner Island Invite SS3 | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.6 | 2.20 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.1 | 1.11 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | 2.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
