John Jackson Team Race

HostGeorgetown
Date03/14/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–3
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–6
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–6
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–6
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–6
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	7–7
7	Connecticut College	Camels	5–9
8	Washington College	Shoremen	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,463 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 56 matches (59%) with a log-loss of 0.628 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.27 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 20% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	9.66 school +0.54	Kyle Burgess / Grace Mcdougall 2.83 Chase Quinn / Marissa Golison Thomas Galster / Rachel Ryan 2.78	41%	11–3 (79%)	+5.3
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	10.37 school +0.11	Eddie Cox / Haley Okun 3.29 Greiner Hobbs / Shannon Lawler 3.31 Elliott Morrill / Erica Oosterhoff 3.44	60%	8–6 (57%)	−0.3
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.17	Michael Madigan / Michelle Katz 3.12 4–4 Patrick Snow / Megan Hough 3.58 4–4 Michael Popp / Brittany Webb-Martin 3.58 2–4 Michael Popp / Michelle Katz 3.59 4–2 Gary Prieto / Megan Hough 2.97 4–2 Patrick Snow / Brittany Webb-Martin 3.53 4–2 Gary Prieto / Brittany Webb-Martin 2.91 2–0	57%	8–6 (57%)	+0.0
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	10.35 school −0.24	Nikole Barnes / Andrew Britton 3.91 Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.98 Dylan Finneran / Sulli Edwards 2.50	59%	8–6 (57%)	−0.2
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1	10.75 school +0.06	David Larson / Paige Omura 3.66 Alexander Stewart / Greta Farrell 3.36 Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford 3.47	69%	8–6 (57%)	−1.7
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	10.35 school −0.07, home +0.29	Nancy Hagood / Meaghan Macrae 6–6 Aj Reiter / Hollis Dana 3.52 2–4 Aj Reiter / Elizabeth Mullarney 3.82 3–3 Jack Marshall / Elisabeth Freese 2.89 1–3 Jack Marshall / Carolyn Dahl 2.90 2–2 Jack Marshall / Elizabeth Mullarney 3.24 3–1 Nancy Hagood / Elisabeth Freese 1–1 Jack Marshall / Hollis Dana 2.97 1–1 Aj Reiter / Elisabeth Freese 3.65 2–0	59%	7–7 (50%)	−1.2
7	Connecticut College Camels	6	9.80 school −0.12	Jordan Bothwick / Lea Bushnell 3.44 Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 2.79 Bryce Kopp / Victoria Allen 3.56 4–6 Bryce Kopp / Walter Florio 3.21 1–3	45%	5–9 (36%)	−1.3
8	Washington College Shoremen	8	8.02 school +0.35	Ryan Bailey / Lindsey Arnstein 2.86 Eleanor Conroy / Allison Cochran 1.82 Eric Siegel / Griffin Rodrigue 2.49	11%	1–13 (7%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.66	11.49	11–3	5.7	+1.83	6.7	<1%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.17	10.17	8–6	8.0	+0.00	0.0	61%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.35	10.28	8–6	8.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.37	10.26	8–6	8.3	−0.11	0.0	69%
6	Georgetown University	10.35	9.94	7–7	8.2	−0.40	0.3	84%
7	Connecticut College	9.80	9.33	5–9	6.3	−0.46	0.4	85%
8	Washington College	8.02	7.54	1–13	1.5	−0.48	0.2	81%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.75	10.18	8–6	9.7	−0.57	0.7	90%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.83	4.66	11–3	5.7	+1.83	6.7	<1%
Chase Quinn	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.33	5.16	11–3	5.7	+1.83	6.7	<1%
Thomas Galster	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.78	4.61	11–3	5.7	+1.83	6.7	<1%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	2.97	3.91	6–2	4.6	+0.93	0.9	23%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.58	3.58	8–6	8.0	+0.00	0.0	61%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.91	3.84	8–6	8.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.98	3.91	8–6	8.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.50	2.43	8–6	8.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.58	3.48	6–6	6.3	−0.10	0.0	68%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.29	3.18	8–6	8.3	−0.11	0.0	69%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.44	3.33	8–6	8.3	−0.11	0.0	69%
Nancy Hagood	Georgetown University	3.26	2.86	7–7	8.2	−0.40	0.3	84%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	2.89	2.49	7–7	8.2	−0.40	0.3	84%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.52	3.12	7–7	8.2	−0.40	0.3	84%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	3.44	2.98	5–9	6.3	−0.46	0.4	85%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.56	3.10	5–9	6.3	−0.46	0.4	85%
Ryan Bailey	Washington College	2.86	2.38	1–13	1.5	−0.48	0.2	81%
Eleanor Conroy	Washington College	1.82	1.34	1–13	1.5	−0.48	0.2	81%
Eric Siegel	Washington College	2.49	2.02	1–13	1.5	−0.48	0.2	81%
David Larson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.66	3.09	8–6	9.7	−0.57	0.7	90%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.36	2.79	8–6	9.7	−0.57	0.7	90%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.12	2.48	4–4	5.1	−0.64	0.5	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	60%
1	2	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	67%
1	4	Connecticut College	Washington College	90%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	50%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	40%	upset
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	87%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	45%	upset
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	54%
1	10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	92%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	25%	upset
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	Connecticut College	66%
1	13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Washington College	92%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	33%	upset
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	71%
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	84%
1	18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
1	19	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Georgetown University	64%
1	20	Connecticut College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	38%	upset
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Washington College	94%
1	23	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	50%
1	24	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	70%
1	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
1	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	33%	upset
1	27	Georgetown University	Washington College	92%
1	28	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	38%	upset
2	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	41%	upset
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	51%
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	33%	upset
2	32	Washington College	Connecticut College	14%	upset
2	33	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	51%
2	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	40%	upset
2	35	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	83%
2	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	44%	upset
2	37	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	50%	upset
2	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	91%
2	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy	Connecticut College	62%
2	41	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Washington College	90%
2	42	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	43%	upset
2	44	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	30%	upset
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	82%
2	46	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	49%	upset
2	47	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Georgetown University	60%
2	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connecticut College	62%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	34%	upset
2	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Washington College	93%
2	51	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	51%
2	52	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	30%	upset
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	34%	upset
2	54	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	33%	upset
2	55	Georgetown University	Washington College	91%
2	56	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Bears	Engineers	Hoyas	Camels	Shoremen
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–2	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–2	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–4	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Bears	Engineers	Hoyas	Camels	Shoremen
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	W	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Washington College Shoremen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
3	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
4	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
5	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
9	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
10	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
11	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
13	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
14	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
15	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
16	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
17	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Shoremen	1-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
19	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
20	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
21	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
22	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
23	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
25	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
26	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
27	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
28	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
29	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
30	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
31	Seahawks	1-5-6	def.	Bears	2-3-4 DSQ
32	Shoremen	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
34	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
35	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Shoremen	1-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
37	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
38	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
39	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
40	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
41	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
43	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
44	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
47	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
48	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
50	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
51	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
53	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
54	Seahawks	1-2-6 DNS	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5 DNF,DNF
55	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
56	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Chase Quinn '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Thomas Galster '15	Marissa Golison '16 Grace Mcdougall '16 Rachel Ryan '15
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Greiner Hobbs '18	Haley Okun '18 Erica Oosterhoff '18 Shannon Lawler '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Madigan '17 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Megan Hough '16 Brittany Webb-Martin '18 Michelle Katz '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dylan Finneran '15 Nikole Barnes '17	Robert Turley '16 Sulli Edwards '17 Andrew Britton '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 David Larson '16	Greta Farrell '18 Christopher Ford '16 Paige Omura '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Jack Marshall '18 Nancy Hagood '14	Elizabeth Mullarney '16 Hollis Dana '16 Elisabeth Freese '16 Carolyn Dahl '18 Meaghan Macrae '18
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Jordan Bothwick '15	Victoria Allen '16 Walter Florio '18 Eliza Garry '17 Lea Bushnell '15
Washington College	Shoremen	Eleanor Conroy '15 Eric Siegel '16 Ryan Bailey '15	Allison Cochran '18 Griffin Rodrigue '18 Lindsey Arnstein '18

Conditions — 03/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 96% · Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.1 kn

avg · max 9.7 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From SSW (212°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.36 in

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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