U. S. Naval Academy '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 70.08 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 21 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.77 (fleet 3.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 156–152 (51%) as crew 2–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 4 | 39–34 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 40–57 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 62–48 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 15–13 | 2–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (280 matches) the record is 141–139 against 146.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.73 | 2.72 | 7–8 | 8.9 | −1.01 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.65 | 3.62 | 8–6 | 8.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.50 | 4.67 | 14–7 | 10.9 | +1.18 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.27 | 3.65 | 10–13 | 8.5 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 3.83 | 3.20 | 7–9 | 8.4 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.53 | 2.94 | 6–8 | 7.7 | −0.59 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.73 | 2.88 | 7–16 | 10.5 | −0.85 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.86 | 3.41 | 9–9 | 10.5 | −0.44 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.58 | 3.48 | 6–6 | 6.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.87 | 3.24 | 5–9 | 6.5 | −0.63 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.56 | 4.37 | 14–8 | 11.0 | +0.82 | 1.8 | 9% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.39 | 3.02 | 13–5 | 13.8 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 3.11 | 8–13 | 9.6 | −0.37 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.55 | 4.12 | 12–5 | 10.5 | +0.57 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.42 | 3.78 | 7–7 | 6.1 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.67 | 3.29 | 8–10 | 9.4 | −0.38 | 0.4 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.4 | 3.86 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 3.28 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 4.45 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 44% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.88 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.5 | 3.03 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.8 | 2.95 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 3.50 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 4.00 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.76 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.2 | 4.00 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 2.92 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | 3.48 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.5 | 3.46 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 3.54 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 3.24 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.3 | 3.78 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.5 | 3.36 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.2 | 3.12 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.5 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 3.87 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 64% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | B | 9 | 4.8 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.2 | 3.51 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.5 | 3.47 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 3.01 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | 3.19 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 3.38 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 7.0 | 3.62 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.5 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.2 | 3.32 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | A | 7 | 8.6 | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.5 | 3.59 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.2 | 3.59 |
| South #1 | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 2.69 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.0 | 4.24 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.7 | 4.10 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 3.21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
