Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/23/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	16–2
2	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	12–6
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–6
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–7
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–7
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	8–10
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–11
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	6–12
9	Eckerd College	Tritons	4–14
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 720 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 65 of 90 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.567 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	9.93 school −0.13	Johnny Norfleet / Kathryn Moloney 3.50 Louis Padnos / Michael Deady 3.06 Eddie Cox / William Godfrey 3.05 9–1 Eddie Cox / Jane Rew 3.09 7–1	70%	16–2 (89%)	+3.3
2	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	9.25 school −0.20, home +0.24	Mike Carr / Paige Conlin 2.67 Nick Valente / Emma Lamontagne 3.03 Harry Scott / Christopher Whalen 3.45	56%	12–6 (67%)	+1.9
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	10.08 school +0.13	George Prieto / Sarah Blake 2.76 Mary Hall / Charles Peck Michael Popp / Glenn Mckenna 3.28	74%	12–6 (67%)	−1.2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	9.30 school −0.06	Andrew Tamblyn / Breanne Baldino 2.96 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.12 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.18	57%	11–7 (61%)	+0.7
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	9.84 school +0.34	Jacob La Dow / Marissa Golison 2.90 Ian Liberty / Mariah Leffingwell 3.22 Alexander Curtiss / Ainsley Thomson 3.10	68%	11–7 (61%)	−1.3
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	9.65 school +0.18	Matthew Gowell / Genevieve Burgoyne 2.88 Michael Schalka / Eliana Michaels 3.00 Daniel Eichler / Katie Olsen 3.21 5–5 Greg Martinez / Katie Olsen 3.44 3–5	64%	8–10 (44%)	−3.6
7	Tufts University Jumbos	8	7.99 school −0.20	Rolfe Glover / Mackenzie Loy 1.86 Duncan Swain / Julie Pringle 3.04 Dan Nickerson / Kate Shaner 7–7 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 0–4	29%	7–11 (39%)	+1.8
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	8.87	Evan Read / Caroline Gray Christopher Price / Thomas Gallagher John Renehan / Emily Petno	47%	6–12 (33%)	−2.4
9	Eckerd College Tritons	9	7.67 school −0.48	Wesley Byrne / Jessica Resnick 3.18 Robert Savoie / Erik Brydges 2.48 Walker Banks / Amanda Smith 2.38	23%	4–14 (22%)	−0.2
10	University of Vermont Catamounts	10	6.82 school −0.39	Michael Booker / Maya Holzhauer 2.54 Bradley Abbott / Lauren Jones Henry O'Brien / Callagy Ross 2.33	11%	3–15 (17%)	+1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.93	11.27	16–2	12.7	+1.34	2.9	5%
7	Tufts University	7.99	8.57	7–11	5.2	+0.58	0.8	22%
10	University of Vermont	6.82	7.37	3–15	2.0	+0.55	0.4	31%
2	SUNY Maritime College	9.25	9.79	12–6	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
4	Roger Williams University	9.30	9.50	11–7	10.3	+0.20	0.1	46%
9	Eckerd College	7.67	7.60	4–14	4.2	−0.07	0.0	65%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.08	9.70	12–6	13.2	−0.37	0.3	84%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.84	9.46	11–7	12.3	−0.38	0.4	84%
8	Dartmouth College	8.87	8.13	6–12	8.4	−0.74	1.3	95%
6	Georgetown University	9.65	8.64	8–10	11.6	−1.01	2.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Louis Padnos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.06	4.40	16–2	12.7	+1.34	2.9	5%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.05	4.39	16–2	12.7	+1.34	2.9	5%
Rolfe Glover	Tufts University	1.86	2.44	7–11	5.2	+0.58	0.8	22%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	2.89	3.47	7–11	5.2	+0.58	0.8	22%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.04	3.61	7–11	5.2	+0.58	0.8	22%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	2.54	3.09	3–15	2.0	+0.55	0.4	31%
Bradley Abbott	University of Vermont	2.04	2.59	3–15	2.0	+0.55	0.4	31%
Henry O'Brien	University of Vermont	2.33	2.88	3–15	2.0	+0.55	0.4	31%
Mike Carr	SUNY Maritime College	2.67	3.21	12–6	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.03	3.57	12–6	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
Harry Scott	SUNY Maritime College	3.45	3.99	12–6	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
Andrew Tamblyn	Roger Williams University	2.96	3.16	11–7	10.3	+0.20	0.1	46%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.12	3.32	11–7	10.3	+0.20	0.1	46%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.18	3.38	11–7	10.3	+0.20	0.1	46%
Wesley Byrne	Eckerd College	3.18	3.11	4–14	4.2	−0.07	0.0	65%
Robert Savoie	Eckerd College	2.48	2.41	4–14	4.2	−0.07	0.0	65%
Walker Banks	Eckerd College	2.38	2.31	4–14	4.2	−0.07	0.0	65%
George Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	2.76	2.39	12–6	13.2	−0.37	0.3	84%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.51	3.14	12–6	13.2	−0.37	0.3	84%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.28	2.91	12–6	13.2	−0.37	0.3	84%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.90	2.52	11–7	12.3	−0.38	0.4	84%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.22	2.84	11–7	12.3	−0.38	0.4	84%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.10	2.72	11–7	12.3	−0.38	0.4	84%
Daniel Eichler	Georgetown University	3.21	2.71	5–5	6.1	−0.49	0.4	86%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	2.67	1.93	6–12	8.4	−0.74	1.3	95%
Christopher Price	Dartmouth College	2.82	2.08	6–12	8.4	−0.74	1.3	95%
John Renehan	Dartmouth College	2.80	2.06	6–12	8.4	−0.74	1.3	95%
Matthew Gowell	Georgetown University	2.88	1.87	8–10	11.6	−1.01	2.6	99%
Michael Schalka	Georgetown University	3.00	1.98	8–10	11.6	−1.01	2.6	99%
Greg Martinez	Georgetown University	3.44	1.60	3–5	5.5	−1.84	3.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	SUNY Maritime College	Dartmouth College	71%
1	2	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	84%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	51%
1	4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	87%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Vermont	96%
1	6	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	33%	upset
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	89%
1	8	Tufts University	Georgetown University	14%	upset
1	9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Vermont	96%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	64%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	75%
1	12	Tufts University	Eckerd College	56%
1	13	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	5%	upset
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
1	15	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	51%
1	16	Eckerd College	Dartmouth College	25%	upset
1	17	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14%	upset
1	18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	53%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	67%
1	20	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	92%
1	21	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	69%
1	22	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	86%
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	49%	upset
1	24	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	92%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	88%
1	26	SUNY Maritime College	Eckerd College	83%
1	27	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	28	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	37%	upset
1	29	University of Vermont	Tufts University	22%	upset
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	90%
1	31	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	37%	upset
1	32	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	89%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	81%
1	34	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	92%
1	35	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	43%	upset
1	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Vermont	95%
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	65%
1	38	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	23%	upset
1	39	SUNY Maritime College	Tufts University	79%
1	40	Eckerd College	University of Vermont	70%
1	41	SUNY Maritime College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	36%	upset
1	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	73%
1	43	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	44%	upset
1	44	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	67%
1	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
2	46	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	84%
2	47	SUNY Maritime College	Dartmouth College	58%
2	48	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
2	49	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	87%
2	50	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Vermont	96%
2	51	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	58%
2	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	90%
2	53	Georgetown University	Tufts University	85%
2	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Vermont	96%
2	55	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
2	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	71%
2	57	Tufts University	Eckerd College	61%
2	58	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	95%
2	59	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
2	60	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
2	61	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	79%
2	62	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14%	upset
2	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	54%
2	64	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	30%	upset
2	65	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	91%
2	66	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
2	67	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	87%
2	68	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
2	69	University of Vermont	Roger Williams University	8%	upset
2	70	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	88%
2	71	Eckerd College	SUNY Maritime College	17%	upset
2	72	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	64%
2	73	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	65%
2	74	Tufts University	University of Vermont	78%
2	75	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	91%
2	76	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	64%
2	77	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	89%
2	78	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	79%
2	79	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	92%
2	80	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	41%	upset
2	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Vermont	95%
2	82	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	67%
2	83	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	76%
2	84	SUNY Maritime College	Tufts University	77%
2	85	Eckerd College	University of Vermont	68%
2	86	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	66%
2	87	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	72%
2	88	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	42%	upset
2	89	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	69%
2	90	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Privateers	Midshipmen	Hawks	Seahawks	Hoyas	Jumbos	Green	Tritons	Catamounts
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–3	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Privateers	Midshipmen	Hawks	Seahawks	Hoyas	Jumbos	Green	Tritons	Catamounts
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–4	L	W	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
2	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
4	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
5	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
6	Big Green	2-5-6	def.	Hawks	1-3-4 DSQ
7	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
9	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
10	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
11	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
12	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
13	Catamounts	3-4-5 DNF	def.	Hoyas	1-2-6 DNF,DNF
14	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
15	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
16	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
18	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
19	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
20	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
21	Big Green	2-4-6	def.	Jumbos	1-3-5 DSQ
22	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
23	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
24	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
26	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
27	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
29	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
30	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
31	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
32	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
34	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
35	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
36	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
38	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
39	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
40	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
41	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
42	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
44	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
45	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
46	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
47	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
49	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
50	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
51	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
52	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
53	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
54	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
55	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
56	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
59	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
60	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
61	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
62	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
63	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
64	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
65	Privateers	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
66	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
67	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
68	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
69	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
71	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
72	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
73	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
74	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
75	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
76	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
77	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
78	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
79	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
80	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
81	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
82	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
83	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
84	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
85	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
86	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
87	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
88	Hawks	2-3-5 DSQ	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6 DSQ
89	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
90	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Johnny Norfleet '13 Louis Padnos '14	William Godfrey '16 Jane Rew '14 Kathryn Moloney '13 Michael Deady '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Harry Scott '13 Mike Carr '15 Nick Valente '16	Christopher Whalen '15 Paige Conlin '14 Emma Lamontagne '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	George Prieto '13 Mary Hall '15 Michael Popp '16	Sarah Blake '15 Charles Peck '15 Glenn Mckenna '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Andrew Tamblyn '13 Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15	Breanne Baldino '16 Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Jacob La Dow '15	Ainsley Thomson '13 Mariah Leffingwell '16 Marissa Golison '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Daniel Eichler '13 Greg Martinez '18 Matthew Gowell '14 Michael Schalka '13	Katie Olsen '15 Genevieve Burgoyne '14 Eliana Michaels '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15 Rolfe Glover '16	Kate Shaner '16 Jamie Maffeo '15 Julie Pringle '14 Mackenzie Loy '13
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Price '14 Evan Read '16 John Renehan '13	Thomas Gallagher '16 Caroline Gray '16 Emily Petno '16
Eckerd College	Tritons	Robert Savoie '14 Walker Banks '14 Wesley Byrne '13	Erik Brydges '14 Amanda Smith '15 Jessica Resnick '16
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Bradley Abbott '13 Henry O'Brien '15 Michael Booker '15	Lauren Jones '15 Callagy Ross '14 Maya Holzhauer '13

Conditions — 03/23/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1010.9 hPa

Temperature

41°F

↑ 45°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.8 kn

avg · max 15.4 kn

Gusts to 28.8 kn

From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1010.9 hPa

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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