Tufts University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 65.76 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 17 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–19 (56%) as crew 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 7–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 24–19 against 22.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.74 | 2.77 | 6–4 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.59 | 1.74 | 6–12 | 9.1 | −0.85 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.86 | 3.72 | 12–3 | 7.0 | +1.86 | 6.4 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ryan Richards (Tufts) Alumni Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 7.7 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.6 | 2.91 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.3 | 2.37 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 3.27 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.62 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.8 | 2.94 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.6 | 2.52 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 2.79 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.5 | 2.97 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.4 | 2.13 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 2.73 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 2.85 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.7 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.4 | 2.53 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.2 | 1.97 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.0 | 2.37 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 2.99 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 1.94 |
| Southern Seven | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | -0.79 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 1.80 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.3 | 1.94 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invitational Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | -0.43 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.5 | 0.75 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 3.36 |
| 10th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.4 | -0.36 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 2.04 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.6 | 1.39 |
| Southern 7 | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 1.26 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.0 | 1.28 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | -0.57 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | 1.16 |
| Midweek 'Fly - Spring13 #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 0.97 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 1.43 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 0.79 |
| Protest Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | -1.79 |
| Professor NoRinger Invitational | Crew | A | 7 | 1.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
