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Midweek 'Fly - Spring13 #2

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 14 14
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 14
3 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 15 15
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 17 17
5 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 1 18 18
6 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 30 30
7 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 30 30
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 32 32
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 36 36
10 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 2 37 37
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 43 43
12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 46 46
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 49 49
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 49 49
15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 56 56
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 1 3 7 3 14 Margaret Bacon '14
Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 1 4 4 14 Amanda Sommi '16
Casey Gowrie '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 7 2 5 1 15 Kate Levinson '15
Emily Lynn '15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 6 3 2 17 Alejandro Bancalari '13
Lexi Pline '19
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 1 3 5 2 8 18 Jacob Hardy '13
Beth Cohen '14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 4 10 11 5 30 Ann Sager '13
Molly Cravens '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 10 4 6 10 30 Sarah Ertle '16
Robert Mcmullen '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 11 8 1 12 32 Kate Shaner '16
Claire Brodie '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 9 7 9 11 36 Will Humphrey '14
Kayla Wagner '15
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 2 8 13 10 6 37 Jared Dunn '13
Sarah Hyman '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 2 12 16 13 43 Lisa Archibald '16
Alissa Borshchenko '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 14 9 8 15 46 Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Aleksandra Kalinowska '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 12 11 12 14 49 Jeremy Kalas '16
Victoria Stivanello '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 13 14 13 9 49 David Perez '15
Noam Buckman '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 DNS DNS 15 7 56 Matthew Vernacchia '15
Scarlett Koller '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 15 15 14 16 60 Sarah Mountjoy '14
Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers18181818
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges 112121212
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges 217171717
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers11111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers5555
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 215151515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 31111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 46666
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats10101010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildkittens20202020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya14141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo3333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University16161616
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue2222

Conditions — 04/25/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From WNW (291°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →