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Tufts Central Series 1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 169
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 178
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 229
4 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 332
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 336
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 353
7 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 393
8 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 458
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 2 4 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 4 2 5 3 3 14 1 3 53 Evan Read '16
Matthew Habig '13
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 1 1 4 4 5 5 13 BKD 2 6 1 7 3 6 1 2 7 1 73 Brendan Cook '16
Hannah Callahan '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 5 3 7 3 4 4 5 2 5 4 7 1 4 5 4 7 10 4 84 Marek Zaleski '16 [1-10]
Sophie Bermudez '16 [11-18]
Alice Kenney '14 [1-10]
Ashleigh Inglis '15 [11-18]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 14 7 8 2 7 3 3 6 4 3 12 4 2 2 6 1 8 2 94 Andrew Mollerus '16
Sydney Karnovsky '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 12 2 3 10 2 6 4 7 7 9 6 3 1 4 2 4 4 10 96 Ryan Astwood '16
Danica Smith '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 3 6 2 5 3 1 1 1 6 13 10 5 12 10 15 12 9 8 122 James Moody '16 [1-10]
Rolfe Glover '16 [11-18]
Samantha Fine '16 [1-10]
Caitlin Durand '15 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 4 13 5 8 12 9 7 8 3 7 11 8 6 1 7 13 3 5 130 Cameron Barclift '14 [1-18]
Emily Lynn '15 [1-10]
Eliza White '14 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University A 6 5 6 11 6 11 6 4 8 2 13 14 7 9 5 3 5 9 130 Kate Shaner '16 [1-18]
Claire Brodie '16 [1-10]
Elizabeth Keys '14 [11-18]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 8 8 9 6 13 15 14 5 9 8 5 9 15 7 11 11 13 6 172 Samuel Scribner '15
Camilla Nivison '14
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 10 12 14 12 15 7 9 12 12 5 3 6 9 BKD 10 15 2 13 176 Sarah Williams '16
Hope Wilson '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University B 16 11 16 16 8 13 10 11 13 10 2 10 10 13 14 8 14 7 202 Pierre Dupont '16 [1-10]
Casey Gowrie '16 [11-18]
Grace Olsen '15 [1-10]
Danielle Feerst '16 [11-18]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges A 11 14 10 15 11 12 12 13 11 12 8 12 14 8 8 6 15 15 207 Jacob Hardy '13 [1-10, 14-18]
Sarah Hyman '15 [11-13]
Jeanna Perry '13 [1-10]
Hannah Spiro '15 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 15 16 12 14 9 14 16 9 10 15 9 13 8 12 12 10 6 14 214 Joshua Pfosi '16 [1-10]
Nicholas Pfosi '16 [11-18]
Colin Meade '16 [1-10]
Chrisanthe Salemis '16 [11-18]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 7 10 13 9 DNF DNF 11 DNF 15 11 14 11 13 14 13 5 12 12 221 Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15
Katherine Paulson '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 13 15 15 13 14 8 15 10 14 14 15 15 11 11 9 9 11 11 223 Grace Olsen '15 [1-18]
Victor Ansart '14 [1-10]
Erin Bondy '15 [11-18]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges B 9 9 11 7 10 10 8 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 251 Andrea Verdeja '14
Helaine Meyer '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats121212121212121212121616161616161616
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers171717171717171717172020202020202020
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges1818181818181818181855555555
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green9999999999131313134444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson555555555599999999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1919191919191919191922222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos333333333388888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University131313131313131313131717171717171717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats101010101010101010101414141414141414
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2020202020202020202033333333
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges212121212121212121212121212121212121
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green88888888881212121212121212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson66666666661010101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya222222222266666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos141414141414141414141818181818181818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University161616161616161616161919191919191919
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Samuel Scribner '15 Camilla Nivison '14
Bobcats Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15 Katherine Paulson '15
Boston University Boston University Ryan Astwood '16 Danica Smith '15
Terriers Brendan Cook '16 Hannah Callahan '16
Brandeis University Brandeis University Jacob Hardy '13 [1-10, 14-18]
Sarah Hyman '15 [11-13]		 Jeanna Perry '13 [1-10]
Hannah Spiro '15 [11-18]
Judges Andrea Verdeja '14 Helaine Meyer '14
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Williams '16 Hope Wilson '16
Big Green Evan Read '16 Matthew Habig '13
Harvard University Harvard University Andrew Mollerus '16 Sydney Karnovsky '16
Crimson Marek Zaleski '16 [1-10]
Sophie Bermudez '16 [11-18]		 Alice Kenney '14 [1-10]
Ashleigh Inglis '15 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University Cameron Barclift '14 [1-18] Emily Lynn '15 [1-10]
Eliza White '14 [11-18]
Jumbalaya Grace Olsen '15 [1-18] Victor Ansart '14 [1-10]
Erin Bondy '15 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University James Moody '16 [1-10]
Rolfe Glover '16 [11-18]		 Samantha Fine '16 [1-10]
Caitlin Durand '15 [11-18]
Jumbos Joshua Pfosi '16 [1-10]
Nicholas Pfosi '16 [11-18]		 Colin Meade '16 [1-10]
Chrisanthe Salemis '16 [11-18]
Tufts University Tufts University Kate Shaner '16 [1-18] Claire Brodie '16 [1-10]
Elizabeth Keys '14 [11-18]
Tufts University Pierre Dupont '16 [1-10]
Casey Gowrie '16 [11-18]		 Grace Olsen '15 [1-10]
Danielle Feerst '16 [11-18]

Conditions — 09/08/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1007.6 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.1 kn
avg  ·  max 15.3 kn
Gusts to 30.5 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1007.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 15 kn · NW 6 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.32 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →