Boston University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 27.06 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 28 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.47 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.57 (fleet 3.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 55–67 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–9 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 34–40 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (122 matches) the record is 55–67 against 61.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.30 | 2.44 | 4–9 | 6.1 | −0.86 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 3.40 | 2.75 | 8–2 | 8.8 | −0.65 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.15 | 2.32 | 3–12 | 5.0 | −0.83 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.24 | 2.93 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.84 | 2.71 | 7–15 | 7.6 | −0.13 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.87 | 2.49 | 12–11 | 13.7 | −0.38 | 0.5 | 85% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 2.70 | 6–6 | 6.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.69 | 3.32 | 9–8 | 7.4 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 23% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.8 | 2.99 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 15.0 | 2.48 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 4.52 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.2 | 4.10 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.4 | 3.63 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 4.23 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.2 | 4.03 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.2 | 3.19 |
| Harman cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 1.31 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.0 | 1.09 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 3.67 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 3.21 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.7 | 3.33 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.8 | 2.60 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.9 | — |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.0 | 4.52 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 2.80 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 2.98 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.9 | 2.57 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 3.35 |
| Dark of Night | Crew | B | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.6 | 3.28 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.0 | 1.74 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 52% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 3 | 16.0 | 1.18 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 8.0 | 3.11 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 5.8 | 3.42 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta 9/26 | Crew | A | 4 | 10.5 | — |
| Mid-week Firefly #2 | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 3.99 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 3.02 |
| Harmon Cup -Sloops Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.0 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 3.07 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | 2.10 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.4 | 2.91 |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.7 | 2.04 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 2.18 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.9 | 1.87 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 17 | 4.1 | 1.53 |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.6 | 2.19 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 1.87 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 12.7 | 1.97 |
| FJ and Firefly Invite @ MIT | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.2 | 1.51 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's NE/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.4 | 0.38 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.4 | 1.74 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 16.7 | 0.46 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.8 | 1.49 |
| Antonia Schuman Women's | Crew | B | 24 | 8.9 | — |
| Spring 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| ICSA Women's Semi-Final Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| ICSA Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 12.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
