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FJ and Firefly Invite @ MIT

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 32 17 49
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 73 27 100
3 Jumbos Jumbos Jumbos 54 54 108
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 65 44 109
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 62 65 127
6 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 47 81 128
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 72 73 145
8 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 89 58 147
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 77 89 166
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 96 72 168
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 84 90 174
12 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 73 125 198
13 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 106 94 200
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 111 95 206
15 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 68 144 212
16 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 129 113 242
17 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 139 138 277
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 2 1 4 13 1 5 4 1 32 Christopher Ford '16
Eben Freeman '13
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 9 7 5 7 1 4 6 1 7 47 John Mcglynn '13
Molly Haley '13
Jumbos Jumbos Jumbos 10 3 9 8 6 8 1 6 3 54
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 8 13 4 1 3 3 10 11 9 62 Christopher Jensen '14
Micaela Sullivan '13
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 15 11 9 5 5 9 3 5 65 Brendan Cook '16
Simon Bertocci '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 12 6 2 4 10 4 15 13 68 Thomas Presti '13
Stefan Kim '13
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 14 10 13 12 11 2 2 4 72 Colin Henderson '15
Sara Kuller '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 16 13 16 2 2 7 8 2 73 Alexander Rudkin '14
Ryan Topal '15
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 13 5 7 6 10 16 3 5 8 73 Johannes Raatz '15
Alex Dion '15
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 1 8 12 7 6 13 14 10 77 James Mcandrew '16
Robert Piispanen '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 11 8 2 3 11 7 14 12 16 84 Jeremy Kalas '16
Audrey Olshefsky '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 17 17 3 5 8 9 8 7 15 89 Matthew Clarida '16
Deirdre Buckley '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 6 14 10 9 13 15 13 11 96 Ellen Kintz '13
Kyneesha Womack '16
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 16 10 12 15 14 12 12 9 6 106 Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15
Katherine Paulson '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 15 4 17 11 16 15 11 10 12 111 Marina Crowe '16 [1-9]
Sarah Mountjoy '14 [1-4]
Victoria Stivanello '16 [5-9]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 12 11 16 14 15 14 16 17 14 129 Nicholaus Pehr '15
Matthew Ferlotti '15
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 14 9 15 17 17 17 17 16 17 139 Tyler Durant '14 [1-4]
Craig Timoney '13 [5-9]
Craig Timoney '13 [1-4]
Max Resnick '14 [5-9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2 5 1 1 2 1 2 1 17 William Livernois '16
Samantha Albright '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 4 3 7 2 1 2 3 2 27 Scott Booth '16
Nicole Sikowitz '15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 DSQ 1 3 7 5 3 1 5 44 Conor Fowler '14
Madelyn Irwin '14
Jumbos Jumbos Jumbos 6 1 9 13 5 8 4 5 3 54
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 12 7 5 10 3 7 4 6 58 Ansel Duff '15
Nicholas Gordon '13
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 10 6 4 4 3 4 12 7 15 65 James Goodson '15
Nicole Ioannilli '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 15 8 10 2 11 6 5 6 9 72 Nicholas Odegard '16
Robert Turley '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 9 2 8 8 11 6 15 7 73 Luke Orchardo '16
Estelle Beguin '14
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 5 10 8 10 9 9 8 12 10 81 Brooke Baker '13
Deren Ertas '16
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 7 6 6 12 12 10 11 11 89 Alex Davis '15
Kaitlin Cornwall '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 13 3 14 11 4 7 DNF 8 12 90 David Rodriguez Fuentes '13
Kayla Ngan '15
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 11 5 12 15 14 14 9 10 4 94 Ali Carley '14
Josh Arenstam '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 12 14 16 9 6 10 11 9 8 95 Beckett Colson '16
Lisa Archibald '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 8 13 11 12 13 15 14 14 13 113 John Cavoores '16
Glen Kochanowski '16
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 9 11 13 16 17 16 13 13 17 125 Alex Dion '15
Olivia Recht '15
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 16 16 15 14 15 13 16 17 16 138 Paige Burns '14
Mikaela Donovan '15
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 17 15 17 17 16 17 15 16 14 144 Andrew Silhavy '14
Garrett Connolly '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs112233445
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats223344556
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons334455667
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers445566778
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears556677889
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies151516161717112
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson6677889910
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers101011111212131314
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers88991010111112
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers9910101111121213
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers778899101011
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies111112121313141415
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1616171711223
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks121213131414151516
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks131314141515161617
JumbosJumbos Jumbos14141515161617171
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals17171122334

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs112233445
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats223344556
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons334455667
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers445566778
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears556677889
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies151516161717112
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson6677889910
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers101011111212131314
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers88991010111112
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers9910101111121213
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers778899101011
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies111112121313141415
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1616171711223
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks121213131414151516
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks131314141515161617
JumbosJumbos Jumbos14141515161617171
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals17171122334
School / Team SkipperCrew
Amherst College Amherst College Johannes Raatz '15 Alex Dion '15
Lord Jeffs Alex Dion '15 Olivia Recht '15
Bates College Bates College Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15 Katherine Paulson '15
Bobcats Ali Carley '14 Josh Arenstam '14
Bentley University Bentley University Tyler Durant '14 [1-4]
Craig Timoney '13 [5-9]		 Craig Timoney '13 [1-4]
Max Resnick '14 [5-9]
Falcons Paige Burns '14 Mikaela Donovan '15
Boston University Boston University Brendan Cook '16 Simon Bertocci '16
Terriers Conor Fowler '14 Madelyn Irwin '14
Harvard University Harvard University Matthew Clarida '16 Deirdre Buckley '15
Crimson Ansel Duff '15 Nicholas Gordon '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jeremy Kalas '16 Audrey Olshefsky '16
Angry Beavers David Rodriguez Fuentes '13 Kayla Ngan '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Marina Crowe '16 [1-9] Sarah Mountjoy '14 [1-4]
Victoria Stivanello '16 [5-9]
Beavers Beckett Colson '16 Lisa Archibald '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Christopher Ford '16 Eben Freeman '13
Engineers William Livernois '16 Samantha Albright '15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Nicholaus Pehr '15 Matthew Ferlotti '15
Buccaneers John Cavoores '16 Glen Kochanowski '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Colin Henderson '15 Sara Kuller '16
Huskies Luke Orchardo '16 Estelle Beguin '14
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Alexander Rudkin '14 Ryan Topal '15
Hawks Scott Booth '16 Nicole Sikowitz '15
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Christopher Jensen '14 Micaela Sullivan '13
Seahawks James Goodson '15 Nicole Ioannilli '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Ellen Kintz '13 Kyneesha Womack '16
Bears Nicholas Odegard '16 Robert Turley '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Thomas Presti '13 Stefan Kim '13
Huskies Andrew Silhavy '14 Garrett Connolly '15
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island James Mcandrew '16 Robert Piispanen '16
Rams Alex Davis '15 Kaitlin Cornwall '16
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University John Mcglynn '13 Molly Haley '13
Cardinals Brooke Baker '13 Deren Ertas '16

Conditions — 10/13/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From WNW (286°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1030.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →