Massachusetts Institute of Technology '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 12.34 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.081 rating points from 245 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 6–26 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 6–12 |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | — | 0–14 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 6–12 against 10.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 2.87 | 1.66 | 6–12 | 10.3 | −1.20 | 3.7 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 9.6 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 9.4 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 3.2 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Crew | A | 11 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 4.3 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 10.8 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 9.2 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 10.5 | — |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 6.3 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A, B | 6 | 14.0 | — |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 12 | 8.8 | — |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 14.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 15 | 9.7 | — |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 10.9 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 13.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Crew | A | 12 | 5.2 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 7.8 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 13.0 | — |
| Oberg | Crew | C | 15 | 12.8 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.7 | — |
| FJ and Firefly Invite @ MIT | Crew | B | 9 | 1.9 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 3 | Crew | A | 10 | 8.8 | — |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Crew | B | 6 | 10.8 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 13.5 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Charles River Invitational | Crew | A | 5 | 7.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
