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FJ Invitational Day 2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 14 11 25
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 22 20 42
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 28 18 46
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 33 28 61
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 30 35 65
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 37 40 77
7 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 41 39 80
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 45 52 97
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 34 65 99
10 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 49 51 100
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers! 84 44 128
12 Boston University Boston University Terriers 67 68 135
13 Blue Blue Blue 68 75 143
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 6 1 3 2 1 14 Connor Brady '15
Jaye Fahey '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 1 3 5 6 5 22 Laura Dunphy '15
Keren Gu '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 3 4 8 1 8 28 James Moody '16
Samantha Fine '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 8 6 2 3 6 30 Nathan Allman '16
Kelly Mcglynn '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 3 7 2 10 4 7 33 Margaret Bacon '14
Erin Bondy '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 6 2 9 4 11 2 34 Rosalind Lesh '16
Samantha Albright '15
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 10 5 1 8 4 37 Matthew Clarida '16
Rebecca Frankel '15
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 7 9 7 6 9 3 41 Amanda Sommi '16
Mackenzie Loy '13
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 11 5 8 7 5 9 45 Ann Sager '13
Rebecca Rothman '13
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 4 10 9 7 11 49 Luke Orchardo '16
Sara Kuller '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 12 11 11 11 10 12 67 Jackson Chabot '14
Blue Blue Blue 10 12 12 12 12 10 68
Boston University Boston University Terriers! DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 1 1 2 5 11 Connor Corgard '16
Bianca Rom '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 4 2 1 6 18 Colin Meade '16
Chrisanthe Salemis '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 2 3 4 3 1 20 Cali Warner '16
Grace Krusell '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 3 6 2 7 6 4 28 Rolfe Glover '16
Danielle Feerst '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 7 5 5 10 2 35 Reid Secondo '16
Alexandra Swanson '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 5 5 6 6 5 12 39 Sarah Stubbs '16
Madeline Luce '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 8 10 3 4 11 40 Ansel Duff '15
Catherine Philbin '14
Boston University Boston University Terriers! 8 9 9 8 7 3 44
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 4 8 11 9 10 51 Luke Orchardo '16
Sara Kuller '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 10 10 7 10 8 7 52 Andrew Angione '13
Molly Goelzer '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 11 11 13 9 13 8 65 Sarah Mountjoy '14
Boston University Boston University Terriers 12 12 11 13 11 9 68
Blue Blue Blue 13 13 12 12 12 13 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (56 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers777777
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers!111111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears444444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson101010101010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers666666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers131313131313
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats555555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University999999
BlueBlue Blue222222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers777777
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers!111111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears444444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson101010101010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers666666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers131313131313
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats555555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University999999
BlueBlue Blue222222

Conditions — 09/22/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine7.4 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1013.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston University: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →