Brown University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.67 (fleet 3.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 108–84 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 17–20 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 13–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 30–33 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 8–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 38–13 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (192 matches) the record is 108–84 against 106.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.68 | 2.63 | 9–15 | 12.6 | −1.05 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.59 | 3.33 | 8–5 | 8.7 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.76 | 3.35 | 13–4 | 14.1 | −0.42 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.51 | 3.11 | 7–10 | 8.4 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.45 | 3.76 | 5–3 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 4.69 | 8–4 | 5.4 | +1.16 | 2.2 | 8% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.53 | 2.67 | 5–7 | 6.8 | −0.86 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 3.85 | 5–9 | 4.2 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.42 | 2.81 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.61 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.73 | 3.68 | 14–4 | 11.3 | +0.95 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 4.22 | 13–4 | 8.9 | +1.29 | 3.7 | 2% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.92 | 3.50 | 11–5 | 9.2 | +0.59 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.68 | 1.82 | 2–8 | 3.0 | −0.86 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.74 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 22 | 36% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 3.50 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.1 | 3.59 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | 3.35 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.4 | 4.17 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.4 | 4.67 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.5 | 3.60 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.7 | 3.01 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 3.68 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.3 | 3.95 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 3.38 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 3.96 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 8.2 | 3.19 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 3.79 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.6 | 2.62 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 3.47 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 4.24 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.6 | 3.12 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.5 | 3.29 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.4 | 3.94 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.3 | 3.10 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 2.30 |
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 3.07 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.4 | 3.67 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 8.9 | 2.85 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 3 | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.1 | 2.19 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.1 | 3.21 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 6.4 | 3.02 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 3.16 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.8 | 2.24 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 3.25 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 2.51 |
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 2.71 |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.50 |
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 3.40 |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.0 | 1.97 |
| PC Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 4.76 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 2.09 |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 1.74 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.7 | 4.31 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
