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Gardiner Island Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 134
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 172
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 178
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 231
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 237
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 365
7 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 445
8 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 487
9 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 512
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 4 7 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 6 2 2 9 2 1 1 47 Jonathan Pope '17
Brigette Croke '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 A 1 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 4 2 8 3 7 1 5 10 59 Nathan Allman '16 [1-10]
Timothy Harding '15 [11-16]
Ragna Eide '16 [1-10]
Olivia Lord '17 [11-16]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 B 8 2 9 3 4 5 2 3 9 5 3 5 5 6 2 4 75 Peter Bailey '15
Haley Carter '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 A 3 1 3 7 12 6 11 8 1 3 6 1 4 7 3 2 78 James Barry '16
Rachel Gutman '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 B 10 8 6 9 9 10 9 9 5 7 1 4 1 3 6 3 100 Kevin Eve '18
Nathan Housberg '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 A 7 10 8 8 14 12 3 6 3 1 5 8 2 5 7 8 107 Peter Girard '18 [1-10]
Sarah Hermus '18 [11-16]
Matthew Gibbs '17 [1-10]
Sarah Leonard '17 [11-16]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 A 2 9 11 4 6 4 7 5 6 4 13 11 6 8 9 9 114 Patrick Isherwood '17 [1-10]
James Scanlon '15 [11-16]
Liz Early '16 [1-10]
Hannah Scanlon '18 [11-16]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 B 16 6 5 5 1 8 5 4 8 8 10 13 8 9 11 6 123 Lucy Clara Jones '18 [1-10]
Kimberly Morecraft '18 [11-13]
Benton Croop '18 [14-16]
Marisa Decollibus '17 [1-10]
Julia Elson '17 [11-16]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 B 11 4 1 12 11 9 8 14 12 10 7 7 3 4 4 7 124 Joshua Leclue '18 [1-4, 11-16]
William Connelly '18 [5-10]
Nellie Hamilton '16 [1-4, 11-16]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 5 11 7 6 10 2 6 10 15 9 4 6 11 10 8 5 125 Henry Stames '18
Connor Adams '15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 12 13 10 13 7 11 12 12 11 11 9 12 10 14 12 11 180 Joseph Dragon '17
Timothy Forgione '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 9 14 12 11 8 13 15 11 14 12 11 9 12 11 10 13 185 Ryan Novak-Smith '17
David Rodriguez '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 6 5 14 10 5 7 10 7 10 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 201 Pierce Conlin '15
Ming Fen Congdon '18
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A 14 12 16 16 15 14 14 15 7 15 12 10 13 12 13 12 210 Kelsey Delosh '17 [1-16]
Courtney Grippin '17 [1-10]
Emily Sharp '17 [11-16]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B 15 15 13 14 13 15 13 16 13 14 16 15 14 15 DNS 15 235 Kelsey Martins '16 [1-10]
Hanna Desilets '17 [11-16]
Janelle Hall '15 [1-10]
Jennifer Moore '16 [11-16]
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners A 13 17 17 17 17 16 16 13 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 252 Corey Exime '15
Deborah Lee '15
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners B 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 14 14 15 13 14 14 260 Jared Lafosse-Baker '14
Joslin Taber '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 17 16 15 15 16 17 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 286 Mara Terchunian '16
Crete Clifford '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11111111111222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 22222222222333333
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers3333333333444444
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners9999999999101010101010
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 17777777777888888
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 28888888888999999
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks4444444444555555
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks5555555555666666
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs6666666666777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 110101010101010101010111111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 211111111111111111111121212121212
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers12121212121212121212131313131313
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners18181818181818181818111111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 116161616161616161616171717171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 217171717171717171717181818181818
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks13131313131313131313141414141414
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks14141414141414141414151515151515
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs15151515151515151515161616161616

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1005.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.3 kn
Gusts to 29.9 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.2 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1005.0 hPa Rain0.26 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · W 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →