Brown University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.58 (fleet 2.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–7 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 3–7 against 3.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | 1.92 | 3–7 | 3.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.8 | 2.70 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.6 | — |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | -0.14 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 3.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
