University of Rhode Island '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.72 (fleet 2.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–16 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 14–16 against 16.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.35 | -0.65 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.31 | 3.12 | 6–5 | 4.3 | +0.80 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.13 | 0.34 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −1.79 | 3.0 | 99% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.33 | 1.84 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 0.84 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.7 | 2.24 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.8 | 2.24 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 11.4 | 1.84 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 2.54 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.0 | 2.21 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 1.37 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.9 | 2.55 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 9.1 | 2.61 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.9 | 3.07 |
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.0 | 0.93 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 8.2 | 2.72 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 13.2 | 2.30 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 2.87 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 3.48 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | 2.16 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.6 | 2.18 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 2.60 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.1 | 2.75 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.2 | 2.43 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.2 | 2.95 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.9 | 2.28 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 2.91 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.1 | 2.09 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.1 | 3.25 |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 2.13 |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A, B | 8 | 3.0 | A 1.27 · B 2.88 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.8 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.7 | 3.37 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 1.93 |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 2.03 |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 0.55 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 2.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
