| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 2–3 |
| 6 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,173 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 13 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.837 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.29 ± 0.57: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 2 | 8.27 school +0.11 | Daniel Petrovic / Tyler Killion 2.61 Spencer Cartwright 2.61 Peter Neal / Dane Pedersen 2.90 | 45% | 6–0 (100%) | +3.3 |
| 2 | Yale University Bulldogs | 1 | 10.08 school +0.33 | Dylan Dimarchi / Becca Rose 3.12 Christine Klingler / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.15 Shawn Harvey / Nicholas Marwell | 88% | 3–3 (50%) | −2.3 |
| 3 | Boston University Terriers | 3 | 8.10 school −0.32 | Kyle Dochoda / Emily Walker 3.01 Michael Sabourin / Shannon Macdonald 2.60 Casey Cabot / Erica Brown 2.77 | 40% | 2–4 (33%) | −0.4 |
| 5 | Tufts University Jumbos | 5 | 7.44 school +0.09, home +0.41 | Wells Drayton / Marisa Permatteo Bram Brakman / Marley Hillman Austen Freda / Duke Saunders | 28% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.9 |
| 6 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 4 | 7.83 school −0.05 | Peter Girard / Ryan Geib 2.35 Patrick Isherwood / Ian Nannig 2.89 Luke Ingalls / Ellis Havelock | 37% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 8.27 | 11.27 | 6–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 5 | Tufts University | 7.44 | 8.51 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| 3 | Boston University | 8.10 | 7.76 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2 | Yale University | 10.08 | 8.02 | 3–3 | 5.3 | −2.07 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 6 | University of Rhode Island | 7.83 | 4.83 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Cartwright | Roger Williams University | 2.61 | 5.61 | 6–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| Bram Brakman | Tufts University | 2.10 | 3.18 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Austen Freda | Tufts University | 2.43 | 3.50 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Dylan Dimarchi | Yale University | 3.12 | 1.05 | 3–3 | 5.3 | −2.07 | 3.9 | >99% |
| Peter Girard | University of Rhode Island | 2.35 | -0.65 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Patrick Isherwood | University of Rhode Island | 2.89 | -0.11 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Roger Williams University | Tufts University | 71% | |
| 1 | 2 | Boston University | University of Rhode Island | 58% | |
| 1 | 4 | Roger Williams University | Boston University | 54% | |
| 1 | 5 | Tufts University | Yale University | 7% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Yale University | Boston University | 88% | |
| 1 | 8 | Roger Williams University | University of Rhode Island | 61% | |
| 1 | 10 | Yale University | University of Rhode Island | 90% | |
| 1 | 11 | Boston University | Tufts University | 65% | |
| 1 | 13 | Tufts University | University of Rhode Island | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | Roger Williams University | Yale University | 14% | upset |
| 2 | 17 | Yale University | Boston University | 88% | |
| 2 | 20 | Roger Williams University | Boston University | 54% | |
| 2 | 22 | Roger Williams University | Yale University | 14% | upset |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | Terriers | Eagles | Jumbos | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 3–3 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–4 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | Terriers | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Terriers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Terriers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Daniel Petrovic '19 Peter Neal '20 Spencer Cartwright '22 |
Tyler Killion '18 Dane Pedersen '19 |
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Christine Klingler '20 Dylan Dimarchi '20 Shawn Harvey '22 |
Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Becca Rose '22 Nicholas Marwell '21 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Casey Cabot '21 Kyle Dochoda '21 Michael Sabourin '20 |
Erica Brown '21 Emily Walker '19 Shannon Macdonald '21 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Austen Freda '21 Bram Brakman '21 Wells Drayton '21 |
Duke Saunders '20 Marley Hillman '21 Marisa Permatteo '19 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Luke Ingalls '21 Patrick Isherwood '17 Peter Girard '18 |
Ellis Havelock '18 Ian Nannig '19 Ryan Geib '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
