Roger Williams University '20
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.55 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 62 | Fall 2019 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 96–60 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 16–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 41–18 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 8–3 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 17–22 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (156 matches) the record is 96–60 against 92.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.67 | 3.32 | 16–4 | 14.1 | +0.65 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 2.82 | 4–10 | 4.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.80 | 3.19 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 66% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 2.76 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 2.93 | 11–5 | 10.2 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 3.46 | 12–3 | 10.1 | +0.92 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.79 | 2.02 | 13–7 | 15.4 | −0.77 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.90 | 5.90 | 6–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 2.06 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −0.88 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 2.99 | 2.17 | 8–4 | 9.5 | −0.82 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.99 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.74 | 2.42 | 4–8 | 4.7 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.39 | 3.21 | 7–2 | 6.1 | +0.83 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 2.5 | — |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.1 | 2.80 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.8 | 1.43 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.0 | 1.78 |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| J-70 Spring Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championships Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.2 | 3.44 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.2 | 1.75 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.55 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.8 | 3.24 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.3 | 2.94 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.9 | 2.76 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.3 | 3.29 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.9 | 3.67 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 2.42 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.0 | 3.33 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | 3.15 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 3.21 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.3 | 3.47 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.7 | 2.90 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Peter Neal |  Mira Costa High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
