Southern New England Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/16/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	15–2
2	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	14–4
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	14–4
4	Brown University	Bears	12–5
5	Boston University	Terriers	12–6
6	Connecticut College	Camels	8–10
7	Eckerd College	Tritons	6–12
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	4–14
9	University of Vermont	Catamounts	4–14
10	University of Michigan	Wolverines	0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,533 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 74 of 89 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.376 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 80% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	3	10.69 school +0.21	Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.86 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.43 Thomas Walden / Caroline Downey 3.03 9–1 Peter Lynn / Lauren Seigel 3.36 6–1	75%	15–2 (88%)	+2.2
2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	10.94 school +0.39	Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.98 10–2 Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 3.38 6–2 Alden Grimes / Marie Bergsund 3.35 7–1 Matthew Kaplan / Marie Bergsund 4.00 4–2 Matt Safford / Louisa Lindgren 3.18 4–2 Matt Safford / Emily Gonzalez 3.20 3–1 Christian Filter / Julia Adams 3.28 3–1 Matt Safford / Marie Bergsund 3.21 3–1 Matt Safford / Julia Adams 3.09 2–0	79%	14–4 (78%)	−0.2
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	9.73 school −0.06	Stephen Duncan / Julia Cho 2.89 Trevor Long / Kaila Pfrang 3.73 11–3 Emily Haig / John Ped 3.15 11–3 Trevor Long / John Ped 3.71 3–1 Emily Haig / Joseph Mastrandrea 3.12 3–1	56%	14–4 (78%)	+3.9
4	Brown University Bears	2	10.75 school +0.14	Patrick Shanahan / Julia Reynolds 3.81 Hannah Steadman / Maxine De Havenon 3.35 Ragna Agerup / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.43 10–1 Ragna Agerup / Davis Tantillo 3.41 2–4	76%	12–5 (71%)	−0.9
5	Boston University Terriers	5	9.73 school −0.15	Javier De Urdanibia Panos / Lexi Pline 3.13 Robby Gearon / Carly Berry 3.34 7–5 Sam Morrell / Emily Walker 3.33 7–3 Sam Morrell / Katherine Bertolini 3.40 5–3 Robby Gearon / Alex Moreno 3.38 5–1	56%	12–6 (67%)	+1.8
6	Connecticut College Camels	4	9.95 school +0.22, home +0.37	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.67 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 3.01 8–6 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy 2.86 4–8 Gordon Gurnell / Marion Lemay 2.27 2–4 Thomas Whittemore / Walter Henry 2.82 2–2	57%	8–10 (44%)	−2.2
7	Eckerd College Tritons	8	8.79 school +0.13	Ian Willoughby / Jackie Morrison 2.82 Daniel Vail / Caroline Puckette 2.48 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Camryn Kennedy 3.31	35%	6–12 (33%)	−0.2
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	9	8.52 school +0.20	Grant Gridley / Riley Read 2.40 4–12 Peter Neal / Brendan Little 2.86 4–10 John Walton / Rachel Holick 2.70 0–8 Preston Duclos / Rachel Holick 3.06 2–4 Preston Duclos / Brendan Little 3.00 0–4 Grant Gridley / Rachel Holick 2.59 0–2 John Walton / Riley Read 2.60 0–2 Preston Duclos / John Walton 3.00 2–0	30%	4–14 (22%)	−1.3
9	University of Vermont Catamounts	7	8.84 school +0.06	Cameron Nash / Gabrielle Myers 2.64 Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.89 Jan Kite-Powell / Emma Janson 3.20	37%	4–14 (22%)	−2.7
10	University of Michigan Wolverines	10	5.57 school −0.11	Connor Goulet / Sarah Silvestri 2.07 Will Neubauer / Claire Foley 1.53 Grant Glover / Julia Sommerfeld	2%	0–18 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.73	10.99	14–4	10.1	+1.26	3.4	3%
1	Boston College	10.69	11.74	15–2	12.8	+1.05	1.5	14%
5	Boston University	9.73	10.31	12–6	10.2	+0.57	0.8	23%
2	Bowdoin College	10.94	10.87	14–4	14.2	−0.07	0.0	68%
7	Eckerd College	8.79	8.70	6–12	6.3	−0.09	0.0	67%
4	Brown University	10.75	10.42	12–5	12.9	−0.33	0.2	81%
8	Roger Williams University	8.52	7.90	4–14	5.3	−0.62	0.6	89%
6	Connecticut College	9.95	9.27	8–10	10.2	−0.68	1.1	93%
9	University of Vermont	8.84	7.78	4–14	6.7	−1.06	1.9	97%
10	University of Michigan	5.57	2.57	0–18	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.73	4.98	14–4	10.1	+1.26	3.4	3%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.86	4.91	15–2	12.8	+1.05	1.5	14%
Alden Grimes	Bowdoin College	3.35	4.08	7–1	6.3	+0.73	0.3	45%
Javier De Urdanibia Panos	Boston University	3.13	3.70	12–6	10.2	+0.57	0.8	23%
Ian Willoughby	Eckerd College	2.82	2.72	6–12	6.3	−0.09	0.0	67%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.31	3.22	6–12	6.3	−0.09	0.0	67%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.86	1.79	6–10	8.9	−1.06	2.1	98%
Will Neubauer	University of Michigan	1.53	-1.47	0–18	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	99%
1	2	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	43%	upset
1	3	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	90%
1	4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	27%	upset
1	5	Boston University	Boston College	29%	upset
1	6	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	83%
1	7	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	96%
1	8	University of Vermont	Brown University	13%	upset
1	9	Bowdoin College	Boston University	79%
1	10	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	11	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	60%
1	12	Brown University	Connecticut College	64%
1	13	Boston University	University of Michigan	99%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	71%
1	15	Boston College	Bowdoin College	40%	upset
1	16	Brown University	Eckerd College	88%
1	17	Boston University	Roger Williams University	81%
1	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	58%
1	19	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	100%
1	20	Boston College	University of Vermont	85%
1	21	Brown University	Boston University	73%
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	72%
1	23	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	91%
1	24	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	68%
1	25	Boston College	University of Michigan	99%
1	26	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	49%	upset
1	27	Bowdoin College	Brown University	55%
1	28	University of Vermont	Eckerd College	51%
1	29	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	96%
1	30	Boston College	Connecticut College	69%
1	31	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	23%	upset
1	32	Boston University	University of Vermont	70%
1	33	Brown University	University of Michigan	99%
1	34	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	79%
1	35	Boston College	Roger Williams University	93%
1	36	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	88%
1	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	98%
1	38	Boston University	Connecticut College	57%
1	39	Brown University	Roger Williams University	92%
1	40	Boston College	Eckerd College	89%
1	41	University of Vermont	University of Michigan	96%
1	42	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	72%
1	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	78%
1	44	Boston University	Eckerd College	72%
1	45	Brown University	Boston College	47%	upset
2	46	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	99%
2	47	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	47%	upset
2	48	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	90%
2	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	27%	upset
2	50	Boston College	Boston University	70%
2	51	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	81%
2	52	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	96%
2	53	Brown University	University of Vermont	87%
2	54	Bowdoin College	Boston University	78%
2	55	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
2	56	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	57%
2	57	Brown University	Connecticut College	64%
2	58	Boston University	University of Michigan	98%
2	59	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	71%
2	60	Boston College	Bowdoin College	40%	upset
2	61	Brown University	Eckerd College	88%
2	62	Boston University	Roger Williams University	80%
2	63	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	57%
2	64	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	99%
2	65	Boston College	University of Vermont	85%
2	66	Boston University	Brown University	27%	upset
2	67	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	72%
2	68	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	90%
2	69	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	68%
2	70	Boston College	University of Michigan	99%
2	71	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
2	72	Brown University	Bowdoin College	45%	upset
2	73	Eckerd College	University of Vermont	49%	upset
2	74	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	95%
2	75	Boston College	Connecticut College	67%
2	76	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
2	77	Boston University	University of Vermont	70%
2	78	Brown University	University of Michigan	99%
2	79	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	80%
2	80	Boston College	Roger Williams University	92%
2	81	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	88%
2	82	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	98%
2	83	Boston University	Connecticut College	56%
2	84	Brown University	Roger Williams University	91%
2	85	Boston College	Eckerd College	89%
2	86	University of Vermont	University of Michigan	96%
2	87	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	71%
2	88	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	77%
2	89	Eckerd College	Boston University	27%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Terriers	Camels	Tritons	Hawks	Catamounts	Wolverines
Boston College Eagles	7–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–3	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Terriers	Camels	Tritons	Hawks	Catamounts	Wolverines
Boston College Eagles	8–0	✕	W	W	–	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–2	–	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
2	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6 DNF
3	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
4	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Terriers	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
6	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
7	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
8	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
10	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
11	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
12	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
13	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
14	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
17	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
18	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
19	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
20	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
21	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
22	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
23	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
24	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
26	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
27	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
28	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
29	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Wolverines	2-4-5
30	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
31	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
32	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
33	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
34	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
36	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
37	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
38	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
41	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
42	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
43	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
44	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
45	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
46	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
47	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
48	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
49	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
50	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
51	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
52	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
53	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
54	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
55	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
56	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
57	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
58	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
59	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
60	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
61	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
62	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
63	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
64	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
65	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
66	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
67	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
68	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
69	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
70	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
71	Terriers	3-4-6	def.	Engineers	1-2-5 DSQ
72	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
73	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
74	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
75	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
76	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
77	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
78	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
79	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
80	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
81	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
82	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
83	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
84	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
85	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
86	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
87	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
88	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
89	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Peter Lynn '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Thomas Walden '20 Wade Waddell '19	Lauren Seigel '20 Tara Ferraris '19 Caroline Downey '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Alden Grimes '21 Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19	Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20 Julia Adams '21 Louisa Lindgren '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Emily Haig '21 Stephen Duncan '20 Trevor Long '19	John Ped '21 Joseph Mastrandrea '21 Julia Cho '20 Kaila Pfrang '21
Brown University	Bears	Hannah Steadman '20 Patrick Shanahan '19 Ragna Agerup '20	Maxine De Havenon '19 Julia Reynolds '22 Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Davis Tantillo '19
Boston University	Terriers	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 Robby Gearon '19 Sam Morrell '21	Lexi Pline '19 Alex Moreno '19 Carly Berry '21 Emily Walker '19 Katherine Bertolini '21
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Gordon Gurnell '22 Thomas Whittemore '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Marion Lemay '20 Paige Dunlevy '20 Walter Henry '23
Eckerd College	Tritons	Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Caroline Puckette '20 Jackie Morrison '23 Camryn Kennedy '21
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Grant Gridley '22 John Walton '22 Peter Neal '20 Preston Duclos '19	Riley Read '22 Rachel Holick '22 Brendan Little '22 John Walton '22
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Cameron Nash '21 Colin Richards '20 Jan Kite-Powell '19	Gabrielle Myers '21 Amanda Engeman '20 Emma Janson '19
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Connor Goulet '21 Grant Glover '19 Will Neubauer '20	Sarah Silvestri '19 Julia Sommerfeld '22 Claire Foley '20

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 41% · Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.7 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 31.5 kn

From WNW (285°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1011.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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