University of Vermont '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.07 (fleet 2.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 66–64 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 23–26 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 29–25 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 14–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (130 matches) the record is 66–64 against 59.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.8). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-23 | Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.91 | 2.60 | 10–10 | 11.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 1.83 | 4–14 | 6.7 | −1.06 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.79 | 4.62 | 9–2 | 5.8 | +1.83 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2018-03-31 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 2.73 | 11–1 | 10.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 3.28 | 10–10 | 7.6 | +0.69 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.65 | 2.59 | 2–6 | 2.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.59 | 2.81 | 6–8 | 5.3 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 2.72 | 3.25 | 9–6 | 7.2 | +0.53 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.64 | 3.81 | 5–7 | 2.5 | +1.17 | 2.2 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 3.08 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.5 | 2.34 |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 2.65 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 3.13 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 3.68 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 2.90 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.4 | 1.42 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.25 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 11.2 | 2.50 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.3 | 2.68 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.0 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.9 | 3.13 |
| Staake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.2 | 2.39 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.8 | 1.13 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.3 | 2.64 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.9 | 3.06 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.3 | 1.47 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.7 | 2.53 |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.0 | 2.95 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | 3.24 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | 1.08 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.7 | 2.57 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 3.52 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 10.5 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 10.2 | 2.61 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 1.74 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.2 | 2.76 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | 1.53 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Colin Richards |  New Trier HS |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
