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Herring Pond Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 11–1
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–6
3 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5–7
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,872 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 24 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.475 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.34 ± 0.34: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Vermont
Catamounts		17.46Jan Kite-Powell / Nellie Stidham 2.76
Nate Peck / Gabrielle Myers 2.04
Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.63		91%11–1 (92%)+0.1
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		25.93
school +0.25		Henry Stames / Darcy Lavoie 1.93
Riley Read / Kristi Dolan
Paul De Souza / Ariana Smaldone		61%6–6 (50%)−1.3
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy
Buccaneers		35.03
school −0.37, home +0.40		Alexander Bowen / Megan Laurie 2.02
Frank Reeg / Sydney Clays 2.24
Auguste Pizzano / Maya Stephani		41%5–7 (42%)+0.0
4University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Minutemen		43.08Griffin Brayer / Justin Stott
Noah Brayer / Emily Pearson
Jack Eberhardt / Aylla Farias		6%2–10 (17%)+1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4University of Massachusetts at Amherst3.084.222–100.8+1.141.118%
1University of Vermont7.467.5611–110.9+0.100.070%
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy5.035.055–75.0+0.020.064%
2Roger Williams University5.935.126–67.4−0.810.893%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Alexander BowenMassachusetts Maritime Academy2.022.045–75.0+0.020.064%
Auguste PizzanoMassachusetts Maritime Academy0.520.545–75.0+0.020.064%
Henry StamesRoger Williams University1.931.126–67.4−0.810.893%
Paul De SouzaRoger Williams University1.340.536–67.4−0.810.893%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst96%
12University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy93%
13University of VermontRoger Williams University84%
14University of Massachusetts at AmherstMassachusetts Maritime Academy11%upset
15University of VermontUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst99%
16Massachusetts Maritime AcademyRoger Williams University29%upset
27Massachusetts Maritime AcademyRoger Williams University29%upset
28University of VermontUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst99%
29Massachusetts Maritime AcademyUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst88%
210University of VermontRoger Williams University82%
211Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst94%
212University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy92%
313University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy92%
314Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst94%
315Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont19%upset
316Massachusetts Maritime AcademyUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst87%
317Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy72%
318University of VermontUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst99%
419University of VermontUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst99%
420Massachusetts Maritime AcademyRoger Williams University28%upset
421University of Massachusetts at AmherstMassachusetts Maritime Academy14%upset
422University of VermontRoger Williams University80%
423University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy91%
424Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst94%

Round 1

TeamRec.CatamountsHawksBuccaneersMinutemen
University of Vermont Catamounts3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–2L✕LW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers1–2LW✕L
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1–2LLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CatamountsHawksBuccaneersMinutemen
University of Vermont Catamounts3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–2L✕LW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers2–1LW✕W
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CatamountsHawksBuccaneersMinutemen
University of Vermont Catamounts2–1✕LWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–0W✕WW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers1–2LL✕W
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen0–3LLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.CatamountsHawksBuccaneersMinutemen
University of Vermont Catamounts3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–2L✕LW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers1–2LW✕L
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1–2LLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 2-5-6
2 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-4-6
3 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-3-6
5 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-5-6
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
7 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
8 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-5-6
9 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-4 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-5-6
10 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
11 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-4-6
12 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
13 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
14 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 4-5-6
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-5
16 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-6 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-4-5
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
18 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 4-5-6
19 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 4-5-6
20 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
21 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-3-6
22 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
23 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-5
24 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.3 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1023.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Mass Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Mass Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →