University of Massachusetts at Amherst '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 0.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 0.74 | 1.88 | 2–10 | 0.8 | +1.14 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Little 3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 0.92 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Central Series #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | -0.81 |
| Central 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.4 | -0.24 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.6 | 1.05 |
| SHU TROPHY | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 1.10 |
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.4 | -0.02 |
| NEISA Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 1.29 |
| McGill Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 2.4 | 1.19 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 0.36 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 1.34 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | 0.62 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wesleyan Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 1.04 |
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.2 | 0.81 |
| NEISA Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 0.26 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 17.0 | -1.42 |
| Central 3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 1.44 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 1.28 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 1.38 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 0.28 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 0.82 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.5 | 0.85 |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.8 | 0.79 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 0.07 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.5 | 0.45 |
| NE Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 0.74 |
| McGill Cup | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.6 | -0.29 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | 0.74 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.3 | 0.71 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noah Brayer |  Amherst College |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
