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Donaghy Bowl

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 9 15
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 16 25
3 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst 15 14 29
4 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 21 12 33
5 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 1 18 17 35
6 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 22 18 40
7 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 21 27 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1 2 2 6 Sam Rush '19
Ellis Havelock '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 2 1 3 9 John Duncan '19
Grant Tilson '20
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst 2 3 4 6 15 Noah Brayer '18 [1-4]
Jeremy Allen '18 [1-2]
Madeleine Staples '19 [3-4]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 1 7 7 3 1 18 Matthew Mccann '17
Catherine Nowakowski '17
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 4 6 7 4 21 Kelsey Laforest '17
Sydney Delfico '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 6 4 6 5 21 Henry Bushnell '17
Courtney Robinson '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 5 5 5 7 22 Martin Hooker '18
Joanna Scuteri '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 2 2 4 9 Garrett Connelly '19
Cecilia Schneider '20
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 2 DSQ 1 1 12 Erin Godfrey '19
Jennifer Gambino '19
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst 3 3 3 5 14 Molly Gallagher '17 [1-2]
Joshua Linker '19 [3-4]
Savannah Kangas '19 [1-2]
Beatrice Genco '17 [3-4]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 4 4 2 16 Erin Jacob '20
Michelle Chisdak '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 1 4 1 6 6 17 Liam Greene '17
Christine Lavallee '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 5 5 5 3 18 Bryan Davis '17
Daniel Ghajar '18
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 7 6 7 7 27 Jenny Chelmow '19
Mika Braun '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 14466
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 21133
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags2244
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst5577
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams6611
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos3355
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals7722

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 15577
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 22244
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags3355
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst6611
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams7722
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos4466
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1133

Conditions — 09/18/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 26.6 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1017.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at U. Connecticut: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.50 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U. Connecticut by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at U. Connecticut, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →