Tufts University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 0.75 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Spring 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.31 (fleet 1.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–14 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 8–1 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–5 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 9–14 against 8.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | Harpswell Sound team Race | skipper | 1.58 | 3.22 | 8–1 | 6.4 | +1.64 | 1.7 | 15% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.78 | -1.22 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 1.39 | 0.85 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.1 | 1.69 |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.1 | 1.88 |
| Harpswell Sound team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | 1.65 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 1.22 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.18 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 0.02 |
| Coast Guard J/70 Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 4.8 | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.2 | 2.60 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 1.38 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.6 | 2.82 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| Invite at Harvard | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 1.10 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | 1.20 |
| NEISA J70 Two-Day Invite Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | -0.07 |
| NEISA Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 0.24 |
| Alymers | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 1.62 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Noringer | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 2.02 |
| Mystic Lake Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.0 | 0.33 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 1.80 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 0.66 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 1.38 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 1.20 |
| Peak Foliage Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | -0.41 |
| Mystic Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 2.10 |
| Midweek Fly 10/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.3 | 1.06 |
| Central Series One | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | -0.11 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
