O'Toole

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 15 14 29
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 17 14 31
3 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 14 22 36
4 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 19 23 42
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 34 12 46
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 30 22 52
7 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 35 40 75
8 Beacons Beacons Beacons 63 MRP 61 MRP 124 MRP
9 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 56 MRP 69 MRP 125 MRP
10 Nor'Easters Nor'Easters Nor'Easters 56 MRP 73 MRP 129 MRP
11 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 74 MRP 65 MRP 139 MRP
12 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 79 MRP 78 MRP 157 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 1 4 2 3 4 14 Sean Beaulieu '18
Grace Benzal '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 3 5 3 15 Gabriel Hannon '20
Justin Chiang '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts OCS 1 1 1 1 17 Thomas Harden '20
Joshua Stone '20
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 3 5 4 2 5 19 Brian Baker '18
Mary Persico '21
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 3 5 10 2 30 Braden Foster '19
Maeve Glancy '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 6 6 7 10 34 John Duncan '19
Emma Clutterbuck '20
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 4 7 10 8 6 35 Shannon Mckeown '18
Page Veaze '20
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 6 8 9 6 7 56 MRP Laura Crowley '19
Alexandra Burke '21
Nor'Easters Nor'Easters Nor'Easters 7 9 7 4 9 56 MRP
Beacons Beacons Beacons 8 10 8 9 8 63 MRP
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 9 11 11 12 11 74 MRP Nick Jaczko '19
Valeriia Vakhitova '20
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 11 12 12 11 DNS 79 MRP Luke Haggerty '18 [1-5]
Elizabeth Do '21 [1-2]
Kieran Brookes '21 [3-5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 2 3 2 1 12 Elena Gonick '20
Delilah Roberts '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 6 2 1 4 14 Elliott Gear '21
Robert Hamann '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 5 1 3 2 14 Aryaman Dutta '22
Alexander Rothberg '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 2 3 5 4 8 22 Joey Lark '21
Emma Sexton '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 4 4 6 3 22 Luke Turner '21
Colin English '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 6 1 6 5 5 23 Caroline King '21
Allison Gilson '21
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 7 9 9 9 6 40 Isabel Rombult '19
Abbey Rogers '21
Beacons Beacons Beacons 9 7 8 8 9 61 MRP
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 8 OCS 7 7 10 65 MRP Vick Xu '19
Gabrielle Beaulieu '20
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 11 11 10 10 7 69 MRP Tara Schwenzfeier '18
Jessica Imbro '18
Nor'Easters Nor'Easters Nor'Easters 12 8 11 11 11 73 MRP
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 10 10 12 DNF DNS 78 MRP Mclean Cozine '20 [1-5]
Sam Alpert '18 [1-2]
Paul Edmond Alexandre Denizé '20 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths11335
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22446
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies88101013
BeaconsBeacons Beacons9912121
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers33557
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers44668
Nor'EastersNor'Easters Nor'Easters1212113
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 155779
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 2668810
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos779912
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs101013132
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1313224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths22446
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33557
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies9912121
BeaconsBeacons Beacons101013132
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers44668
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers55779
Nor'EastersNor'Easters Nor'Easters1313224
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 1668810
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 2779912
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos88101013
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs1212113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts11335

Conditions — 04/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1027.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1027.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mass Maritime: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →