Salve Regina University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–43 (2%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 1–34 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 1–43 against 2.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-23 | Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.08 | 2.08 | 1–19 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 1.89 | -1.11 | 0–15 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.36 | -1.64 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.8 | 0.88 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 14.5 | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.0 | 3.32 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.87 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 3.09 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 14.8 | 2.01 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.4 | 2.40 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 17.1 | 2.13 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.6 | 1.86 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.2 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 20 | 5% | — |
| Salve Sunday 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 2.23 |
| Salve Saturday Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 1.15 |
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | A | 20 | 7.0 | 0.93 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 2.39 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.5 | 1.79 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 16.5 | 1.33 |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 3.39 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.3 | 2.32 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.96 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.67 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.7 | 1.93 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.82 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 17.0 | 0.76 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | 2.19 |
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 0.27 |
| O'Toole | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.4 | 1.23 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 2 | 15.5 | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Southern Seven | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 1.62 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.4 | 0.91 |
| PC Invite 2017 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.0 | 2.96 |
| Invite at Harvard | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.8 | -1.05 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 11.7 | 1.80 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.1 | 1.50 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
