Mt. Hope Bay Invite

HostRoger Williams
Date09/08/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	60	54	114
2	University of Vermont	Catamounts	63	58	121
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	42	80	122
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	54	68	122
5	Brown University	Bears	78	73	151
6	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	68	96	164
7	University of Rhode Island	Rams	105	68	173
8	Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	109	83	192
9	Yale University	Bulldogs	95	146	241
10	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	192	62	254
11	Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	135	122	257
12	Bentley University	Falcons	87	175	262
13	University of Connecticut	Huskies	157	106	263
14	McGill University	Redbirds	176 MRP	126 MRP	302 MRP
15	Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	163	144	307

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	1	1	11	5	1	1	4	2	4	1	7	4	42	Tyler Mowry '22 Kylie Freitas '20
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6	2	3	11	7	3	7	6	3	3	1	2	54	Liam Ballantyne '19 [1-12] Mary Tran '22 [1-2, 9-10] Anna Maria Vaccaro '19 [3-8, 11-12]
Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	3	8	2	6	10	9	3	3	1	4	8	3	60	Grant Gridley '22 Emily Gildea '21
University of Vermont	Catamounts	2	11	1	9	3	6	9	1	2	6	6	7	63	Thomas Harden '20 Chloe Becker '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	5	6	4	10	8	8	8	5	6	2	5	1	68	Samuel Merson '22 [1-8] Alex Fasolo '22 [9-12] Emily Calandrella '20 [1-8] Hailey Mckelvie '22 [9-12]
Brown University	Bears	7	3	8	8	4	2	12	8	9	10	2	5	78	Gabriel Hannon '20 [1-8] Olivia Belda '22 [9-12] Madeleine Montagner '22 [1-8] Jack Papetti '21 [9-12]
Bentley University	Falcons	10	7	6	1	5	11	2	9	5	7	15	9	87	Nicholas Memoli '20 Alyson Schwerdtfeger '19
Yale University	Bulldogs	11	5	10	3	12	5	13	12	7	8	3	6	95	Martin Tipton '21 Alexandra Contomichalos '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams	9	9	5	13	9	7	1	7	12	12	9	12	105	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-8] Jack Scott '22 [9-12] Kevin Stamp '22 [1-8] Samantha Hamilton '19 [9-12]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	8	10	9	4	6	4	DNS	DNS	10	5	11	10	109	Joey Lark '21 [1-8] Allison Deluca '21 [9-12] Peter Cronin '22 [1-8]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	DNS	DNS	12	7	11	12	6	4	11	11	13	DNS	135	Caroline King '21 Allison Gilson '21
University of Connecticut	Huskies	13	12	15	14	13	13	14	14	13	13	12	11	157	Anne Cathrine Longo '20 Sarah Woodward '21
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	12	13	14	15	14	15	10	13	14	15	14	14	163	Andrew Reynolds '19 [1-12] Victoria Kyle '20 [1-10] Jesus Esgueva '21 [11-12]
McGill University	Redbirds	14	14	13	12	15	14	11	11	15	14	10	13	176 MRP	Nathan Drezner '20 Maria Kaminska '20
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	192	Austen Freda '21 Duke Saunders '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	2	2	1	4	4	2	11	12	4	1	8	3	54	John Walton '22 Brendan Little '22
University of Vermont	Catamounts	12	4	6	1	2	1	7	11	2	8	2	2	58	Peter Schneider '20 Lucy Mulvihill '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	6	5	11	8	8	13	3	3	1	2	1	1	62	Abbie Carlson '22 [1-6] Charlie Hibben '22 [7-12] Taylor Hart '19 [1-6] Sabina Van Mell '19 [7-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4	11	9	5	1	3	2	RDG	5	5	9	10	68	Caelan Juckniess '20 [1-3, 5-11] Madeline Kaller '21 [4, 12] Madeline Kaller '21 [1-3, 5-11] Caelan Juckniess '20 [4, 12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams	8	3	4	3	10	10	1	8	3	3	3	12	68	Zachary Champney '22 [1-6] Kylie Castellano '21 [7-12] Maguire Bennett '21 [1-6] Cecilia Schneider '20 [7-12]
Brown University	Bears	3	8	3	6	3	4	6	10	6	6	10	8	73	Jed Bell '23 [1-6] Blaire Mccarthy '23 [7-12] Catherine Mcclenahan '21 [1-6] Brian Kirz '22 [7-12]
Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	1	6	10	11	7	6	9	6	7	7	4	6	80	Riley Read '22 Darcy Lavoie '21
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	7	9	7	DSQ	9	5	4	4	8	4	6	4	83	Anthony Root '22 Zachary Steuer '21
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	11	1	2	9	5	11	8	5	11	12	12	9	96	Andrew Savage '19 [1-6] John Duncan '19 [7-12] Kahler Newsham '19 [1-6] Michaela Morris '20 [7-12]
University of Connecticut	Huskies	5	10	5	2	6	12	5	13	13	11	11	13	106	Ellen Fuller '22 [1-6] Danielle Elson '19 [7-12] Maxwell Miller '21 [1-6]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	DNS	DNS	8	7	12	7	10	9	9	OCS	7	5	122	Lucie Ford '20 Caroline Mcneil '22
McGill University	Redbirds	9	7	12	12	11	8	13	2	10	10	5	7	126 MRP	John Wittmann '21 Philippe Grenier '19
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	13	12	13	10	13	14	12	1	14	13	15	14	144	John Holt '22 [1-12] Anna Wiatrowski '21 [1-8] Jonah Raymond '22 [9-12]
Yale University	Bulldogs	10	13	14	13	14	9	14	14	12	9	13	11	146	Adam Wolnikowski '21 Kathleen Wells '21
Bentley University	Falcons	14	14	15	14	15	15	15	15	15	14	14	15	175	Alexander Kostas '21 [1-6, 9-12] Kailey Sullivan '21 [7-8] Rachael Krawiecki '21 [1-6] Peter Lillys '20 [7-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Bentley University Falcons	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Brown University Bears	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
University of Connecticut Huskies	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
McGill University Redbirds	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Salve Regina University Seahawks 1	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16
Salve Regina University Seahawks 2	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 1	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 2	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18
University of Vermont Catamounts	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6
Yale University Bulldogs	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Bentley University Falcons	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Brown University Bears	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
University of Connecticut Huskies	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
McGill University Redbirds	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11
University of Rhode Island Rams	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Salve Regina University Seahawks 1	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15
Salve Regina University Seahawks 2	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 2	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17
University of Vermont Catamounts	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5
Yale University Bulldogs	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bentley University	Nicholas Memoli '20	Alyson Schwerdtfeger '19
Falcons	Alexander Kostas '21 [1-6, 9-12] Kailey Sullivan '21 [7-8]	Rachael Krawiecki '21 [1-6] Peter Lillys '20 [7-12]
Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20 [1-8] Olivia Belda '22 [9-12]	Madeleine Montagner '22 [1-8] Jack Papetti '21 [9-12]
Bears	Jed Bell '23 [1-6] Blaire Mccarthy '23 [7-12]	Catherine Mcclenahan '21 [1-6] Brian Kirz '22 [7-12]
McGill University	Nathan Drezner '20	Maria Kaminska '20
Redbirds	John Wittmann '21	Philippe Grenier '19
Roger Williams University	Tyler Mowry '22	Kylie Freitas '20
Hawks 1	Riley Read '22	Darcy Lavoie '21
Roger Williams University	Grant Gridley '22	Emily Gildea '21
Hawks 2	John Walton '22	Brendan Little '22
Salve Regina University	Joey Lark '21 [1-8] Allison Deluca '21 [9-12]	Peter Cronin '22 [1-8]
Seahawks 1	Anthony Root '22	Zachary Steuer '21
Salve Regina University	Caroline King '21	Allison Gilson '21
Seahawks 2	Lucie Ford '20	Caroline Mcneil '22
Tufts University	Samuel Merson '22 [1-8] Alex Fasolo '22 [9-12]	Emily Calandrella '20 [1-8] Hailey Mckelvie '22 [9-12]
Jumbos 1	Andrew Savage '19 [1-6] John Duncan '19 [7-12]	Kahler Newsham '19 [1-6] Michaela Morris '20 [7-12]
Tufts University	Austen Freda '21	Duke Saunders '20
Jumbos 2	Abbie Carlson '22 [1-6] Charlie Hibben '22 [7-12]	Taylor Hart '19 [1-6] Sabina Van Mell '19 [7-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Liam Ballantyne '19 [1-12]	Mary Tran '22 [1-2, 9-10] Anna Maria Vaccaro '19 [3-8, 11-12]
Bears	Caelan Juckniess '20 [1-3, 5-11] Madeline Kaller '21 [4, 12]	Madeline Kaller '21 [1-3, 5-11] Caelan Juckniess '20 [4, 12]
University of Connecticut	Anne Cathrine Longo '20	Sarah Woodward '21
Huskies	Ellen Fuller '22 [1-6] Danielle Elson '19 [7-12]	Maxwell Miller '21 [1-6]
University of Rhode Island	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-8] Jack Scott '22 [9-12]	Kevin Stamp '22 [1-8] Samantha Hamilton '19 [9-12]
Rams	Zachary Champney '22 [1-6] Kylie Castellano '21 [7-12]	Maguire Bennett '21 [1-6] Cecilia Schneider '20 [7-12]
University of Vermont	Thomas Harden '20	Chloe Becker '22
Catamounts	Peter Schneider '20	Lucy Mulvihill '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Andrew Reynolds '19 [1-12]	Victoria Kyle '20 [1-10] Jesus Esgueva '21 [11-12]
Leopards	John Holt '22 [1-12]	Anna Wiatrowski '21 [1-8] Jonah Raymond '22 [9-12]
Yale University	Martin Tipton '21	Alexandra Contomichalos '22
Bulldogs	Adam Wolnikowski '21	Kathleen Wells '21

Conditions — 09/08/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 16.5 kn

From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 12 kn* · NE 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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