Tufts University '22
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 1.98 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 65 | Spring 2021 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 2.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–73 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 18–33 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (96 matches) the record is 23–73 against 29.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.29 | 2.04 | 3–13 | 3.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.37 | 1.94 | 5–9 | 6.2 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 3.11 | 10–11 | 6.8 | +0.84 | 2.0 | 7% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | -0.62 | 0–15 | 5.7 | ≤−3.00 | 10.4 | >99% |
| 2021-05-22 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 2.94 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | -0.92 | 0–15 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.83 | 1.97 | 4–6 | 3.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | 0.30 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 3.51 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.9 | 2.56 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.3 | 3.16 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.10 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.9 | 3.12 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.2 | 2.49 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 2.53 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.6 | 2.88 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 3.06 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.4 | 2.84 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Open Singlehanded National Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.3 | 1.87 |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.8 | 3.76 |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 2.01 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.1 | 1.19 |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.4 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.5 | 2.57 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 2.77 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.9 | 2.34 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.3 | 2.49 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.0 | 2.46 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 1.96 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.9 | 1.98 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.9 | 2.38 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.1 | 3.04 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 0.69 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.7 | 2.48 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 3.54 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.9 | 2.55 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.3 | 2.20 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.2 | 2.13 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.5 | 2.18 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | 1.83 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.9 | 1.97 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.3 | 3.66 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 1.63 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.6 | 2.79 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Abbie Carlson |  Forest Ridge |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
