Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/26/2022
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	14–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	13–5
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–8
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	10–8
5	George Washington University	Colonials	7–8
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	6–9
7	Cornell University	Big Red	10–4
8	Georgetown University	Hoyas	5–9
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–9
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	4–10
11	Fordham University	Rams	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 92 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.629 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.36 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	8.56 school −0.11	Kaila Pfrang / Maile Jim 2.75 Dana Haig / Veronika Silkin 2.94 12–2 Brooke Schmelz / Shayne Bersin 3.00 9–2 Brooke Schmelz / Mercedes Escandon 2.87 5–2 Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.02 2–2	70%	14–4 (78%)	+1.5
2	Boston College Eagles	1	9.10 school +0.31	Colleen O'Brien / Elizabeth Shanahan 3.26 Michaela O'Brien / Nicole Moeder 2.83 Libby Redmond / Lilly Mathieu 2.68	81%	13–5 (72%)	−1.5
3	College of Charleston Cougars	10	7.04 school +0.54	Kiera Oreardon / Rowan Schanley 2.35 11–7 Fredrikke Foss / Roxanne Snyder 1.99 11–6 Grace Squires / Anna Sherry 2.12 11–6 Grace Squires / Chloe Hudgins 2.30 1–3 Fredrikke Foss / Cara Samson 1.90 1–3 Kiera Oreardon / Anna Sherry 2.26 1–2	34%	12–9 (57%)	+4.9
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	7.40 school +0.23, home +0.32	Katherine Bennett / Emma Gronda 2.56 Madison Bashaw / Anna Flynn Lily Flack / Rachel O'Neill 8–8 Lily Flack / Genna Viggiano 2–0	42%	10–8 (56%)	+2.4
5	George Washington University Colonials	9	7.07 school +0.08	Chiara Perotti Correa / Kaleigh Morgan 2.36 Emma Aubuchon / Mikaela Smith 2.47 Islay Van Dusen / Sarah Hardee 2.09 7–10 Islay Van Dusen / Genevieve Mumma 2.12 1–0	35%	8–10 (44%)	+1.6
6	Tulane University Green Wave	2	8.66	Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.85 8–9 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Annie Richard 3.27 8–9 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.54 9–7 Mia Hanes / Isabella Bentz 2.48 0–2 Caroline Benson / Lydia Brown 3.03 1–0 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Abigail Borggaard 3.20 1–0	73%	9–9 (50%)	−4.2
7	Cornell University Big Red	5	7.57 school −0.10	Lauren Ehnot / Sophia Fogarty Brooke Shachoy / Amelia Neumann 2.68 5–5 Bridget Green / Jana Laurendeau 2.85 5–5 Brooke Shachoy / Jana Laurendeau 2.68 5–2 Bridget Green / Louisa Bjerke 2.90 5–2	56%	10–7 (59%)	+0.6
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	7.61 school +0.35	Riley Kloc / Morgan Rice 5–8 Morgan Sailer / Eva Fortunato 3–7 Piper Holthus / Victoria Boatwright 3–7 Morgan Sailer / Marguerite Montagner 2–2 Piper Holthus / Louisa Buckingham 2–2 Eva Fortunato / Victoria Boatwright 0–1	56%	5–9 (36%)	−2.8
8	Tufts University Jumbos	6	7.10 school +0.14	Abbie Carlson / Mallory Hood 2.37 Chloe Holder / Paige Tyler 2.37 5–8 Alexandra Talbot / Hailey Mckelvie 2.21 4–6 Alexandra Talbot / Naomi Pedersen 2.14 1–3 Chloe Holder / Naomi Pedersen 2.42 0–1	44%	5–9 (36%)	−1.2
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	6.93 school +0.17	Heather Kerns / Frances Depke 2.47 Ella Withington / Payton Kliesch 2.42 4–9 Brook Wood / Anna Mcbride 1.79 4–9 Ella Withington / Anna Mcbride 2.46 0–1 Brook Wood / Rachel Duggan 1.84 0–1	40%	4–10 (29%)	−1.6
11	Fordham University Rams	11	5.47 school +0.11	Caroline Sandoval / Kristen Healy Payton Canavan / Victroia Flatley Elizabeth Cutler / Maggie Costikyan	12%	2–12 (14%)	+0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	College of Charleston	7.04	8.18	12–9	7.1	+1.14	4.1	2%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.40	8.05	10–8	7.6	+0.65	1.1	16%
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.56	9.06	14–4	12.5	+0.50	0.5	30%
5	George Washington University	7.07	7.52	8–10	6.4	+0.45	0.5	27%
11	Fordham University	5.47	5.69	2–12	1.7	+0.22	0.1	51%
7	Cornell University	7.57	7.73	10–7	9.5	+0.16	0.1	49%
8	Tufts University	7.10	6.68	5–9	6.2	−0.43	0.4	84%
2	Boston College	9.10	8.59	13–5	14.5	−0.52	0.6	89%
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.93	6.30	4–10	5.6	−0.63	0.7	90%
8	Georgetown University	7.61	6.58	5–9	7.8	−1.04	2.1	98%
6	Tulane University	8.66	7.49	9–9	13.2	−1.17	3.7	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	1.99	3.13	12–9	7.1	+1.14	4.1	2%
Kiera Oreardon	College of Charleston	2.35	3.49	12–9	7.1	+1.14	4.1	2%
Lily Flack	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.51	2.16	10–8	7.6	+0.65	1.1	16%
Brooke Shachoy	Cornell University	2.68	3.18	14–4	12.5	+0.50	0.5	30%
Chiara Perotti Correa	George Washington University	2.36	2.81	8–10	6.4	+0.45	0.5	27%
Abbie Carlson	Tufts University	2.37	1.94	5–9	6.2	−0.43	0.4	84%
Alexandra Talbot	Tufts University	2.21	1.78	5–9	6.2	−0.43	0.4	84%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.54	1.37	9–9	13.2	−1.17	3.7	99%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	3.27	2.11	9–9	13.2	−1.17	3.7	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	41%	upset
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Georgetown University	81%
1	3	George Washington University	Boston College	11%	upset
1	4	College of Charleston	Fordham University	84%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	44%	upset
1	6	Cornell University	Georgetown University	56%
1	7	Boston College	Tulane University	63%
1	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Fordham University	96%
1	9	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
1	10	Tufts University	George Washington University	52%
1	11	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	12	Cornell University	Fordham University	89%
1	13	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	19%	upset
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	49%	upset
1	15	Tulane University	Tufts University	84%
1	16	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	52%
1	17	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	27%	upset
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	88%
1	19	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	56%
1	20	Boston College	Tufts University	88%
1	21	Tulane University	George Washington University	83%
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	23	College of Charleston	Cornell University	38%	upset
1	24	Georgetown University	Fordham University	91%
1	25	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	15%	upset
1	27	George Washington University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	18%	upset
1	28	Tufts University	Fordham University	84%
1	29	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
1	30	Tulane University	College of Charleston	83%
1	31	George Washington University	Georgetown University	31%	upset
1	32	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	43%	upset
1	33	Boston College	Cornell University	82%
1	34	Tulane University	Fordham University	96%
1	35	George Washington University	College of Charleston	51%
1	36	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	34%	upset
1	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	81%
1	38	Boston College	Fordham University	97%
1	39	George Washington University	Cornell University	38%	upset
1	40	Tulane University	Georgetown University	72%
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	62%
1	42	College of Charleston	Tufts University	47%	upset
1	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	38%	upset
1	44	Cornell University	Tulane University	26%	upset
1	45	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	19%	upset
1	46	Tufts University	Georgetown University	36%	upset
1	47	Boston College	College of Charleston	90%
1	48	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	48%	upset
1	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	58%
1	50	Cornell University	Tufts University	63%
1	51	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	50%	upset
1	52	Boston College	Georgetown University	81%
1	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	22%	upset
1	54	Fordham University	George Washington University	17%	upset
1	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
1	56	College of Charleston	Cornell University	37%	upset
1	57	Tulane University	George Washington University	83%
1	58	George Washington University	Cornell University	38%	upset
1	59	Tulane University	College of Charleston	83%
1	60	College of Charleston	George Washington University	49%	upset
1	61	Tulane University	Cornell University	74%
4	87	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
4	88	Boston College	College of Charleston	90%
4	89	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	80%
4	90	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	16%	upset
4	91	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
4	92	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	38%	upset
5	64	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	45%	upset
5	65	Cornell University	Georgetown University	49%	upset
5	68	Tufts University	Fordham University	83%
5	69	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
5	72	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
5	73	Cornell University	Tufts University	64%
5	76	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	68%
5	77	Cornell University	Fordham University	89%
5	80	Georgetown University	Tufts University	66%
5	81	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	80%
6	62	Boston College	Tulane University	62%
6	63	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	41%	upset
6	66	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	George Washington University	82%
6	67	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	84%
6	70	George Washington University	Tulane University	17%	upset
6	71	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	80%
6	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	58%
6	75	Boston College	College of Charleston	90%
6	78	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	48%	upset
6	79	College of Charleston	George Washington University	49%	upset
6	82	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	23%	upset
6	83	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
6	84	College of Charleston	Tulane University	17%	upset
6	85	Boston College	George Washington University	88%
6	86	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Cougars	Seahawks	Colonials	Wave	Red	Hoyas	Jumbos	Statesmen	Rams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–3	✕	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–5	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	7–6	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	9–4	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–7	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–8	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–6	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	2–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Cougars	Seahawks
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–2	L	✕	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Jumbos	Statesmen	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	4–0	✕	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–1	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–3	L	L	✕	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–2	L	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–4	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Cougars	Seahawks	Colonials	Wave
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
2	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
3	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
4	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
6	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
7	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
8	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
9	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
10	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
11	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
12	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
13	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
15	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
16	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
17	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
20	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
21	Green Wave	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
22	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
23	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
24	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
25	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
26	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
27	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
28	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
29	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
30	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
31	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
32	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
34	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
35	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
36	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
37	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
38	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
39	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
40	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
42	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
43	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
44	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
45	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
46	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
47	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
48	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
50	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
51	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
53	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
54	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
55	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
56	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
57	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
58	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
59	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
60	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
61	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
87	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
88	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
89	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
90	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
91	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
92	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
64	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
65	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
68	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
69	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
72	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
73	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
76	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
77	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
80	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
81	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
62	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
63	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
66	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
67	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
70	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
71	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
74	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
75	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
78	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
79	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
82	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
83	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
84	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
85	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
86	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Kaila Pfrang '21	Mercedes Escandon '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Veronika Silkin '22 Maile Jim '22
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Libby Redmond '24 Michaela O'Brien '24	Elizabeth Shanahan '23 Lilly Mathieu '23 Nicole Moeder '22
College of Charleston	Cougars	Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24 Kiera Oreardon '22	Roxanne Snyder '23 Cara Samson '24 Anna Sherry '23 Chloe Hudgins '24 Rowan Schanley '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Katherine Bennett '22 Lily Flack '25 Madison Bashaw '24	Emma Gronda '22 Rachel O'Neill '24 Genna Viggiano '22 Anna Flynn '25
George Washington University	Colonials	Chiara Perotti Correa '22 Emma Aubuchon '23 Islay Van Dusen '23	Kaleigh Morgan '24 Mikaela Smith '22 Sarah Hardee '22 Genevieve Mumma '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24	Abigail Borggaard '24 Lydia Brown '23 Annie Richard '23 Essie Clifton '25 Isabella Bentz '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lauren Ehnot '24	Louisa Bjerke '22 Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Fogarty '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Eva Fortunato '23 Morgan Sailer '22 Piper Holthus '25 Riley Kloc '23	Victoria Boatwright '22 Eva Fortunato '23 Marguerite Montagner '25 Louisa Buckingham '24 Morgan Rice '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Abbie Carlson '22 Alexandra Talbot '22 Chloe Holder '23	Mallory Hood '22 Naomi Pedersen '25 Hailey Mckelvie '22 Paige Tyler '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Ella Withington '22 Heather Kerns '24	Anna Mcbride '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Payton Kliesch '25 Frances Depke '25
Fordham University	Rams	Caroline Sandoval '23 Elizabeth Cutler '24 Payton Canavan '23	Kristen Healy '24 Maggie Costikyan '22 Victroia Flatley '24

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1001.5 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 15.6 kn

Gusts to 34.0 kn

From W (267°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1001.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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