Lily Flack

Rating History

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Singlehanded0.98unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active)28Fall 2023

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
1.52 (fleet 2.15) unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) −0.03 ± 0.17
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 39–59 (40%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 2024314–32—
Spring 202329–11—
Spring 2022216–16—
1.41.51.61.7Spring 2022Spring 2023Spring 2024MAISA Women's Team Race Championship (2022-04-02): rating 1.56, fleet rating alone 1.52, offset +0.04; record 6-8 in this boatODU Women's Team Race (2023-03-04): rating 1.52, fleet rating alone 1.51, offset +0.02; record 6-3 in this boatSt. Mary's Women's Team Race (2023-03-11): rating 1.57, fleet rating alone 1.52, offset +0.04; record 1-5 in this boatSt. Mary's Women's Team Race (2023-03-11): rating 1.57, fleet rating alone 1.52, offset +0.04; record 2-3 in this boatODU Women's Team Race (2024-03-02): rating 1.54, fleet rating alone 1.52, offset +0.02; record 4-10 in this boatSeahawk Women's Team Race (2024-03-23): rating 1.48, fleet rating alone 1.47, offset +0.01; record 0-4 in this boatSeahawk Women's Team Race (2024-03-23): rating 1.48, fleet rating alone 1.47, offset +0.01; record 4-10 in this boatMAISA Women's Team Race Championships (2024-04-13): rating 1.47, fleet rating alone 1.48, offset -0.01; record 6-8 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 7 graded regattas (98 matches) the record is 39–59 against 39.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2024-04-13MAISA Women's Team Race Championshipsskipper1.941.406–87.3−0.540.588%
2024-03-23Seahawk Women's Team Raceskipper1.891.474–145.1−0.420.383%
2024-03-02ODU Women's Team Raceskipper1.791.974–103.7+0.170.054%
2023-03-11St. Mary's Women's Team Raceskipper1.981.183–84.2−0.800.792%
2023-03-04ODU Women's Team Raceskipper1.882.956–33.8+1.081.712%
2022-04-02MAISA Women's Team Race Championshipskipper1.881.316–87.9−0.570.890%
2022-03-26Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConferenceskipper1.512.1610–87.6+0.651.116%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Spring 2024 Team page Season
St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's Skipper A 6 12.8 0.84
Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's Skipper TR 18 22% —
ODU Women's Team Race Women's Skipper TR 14 29% —
MAISA Women's Team Race Championships Women's Skipper TR 14 43% —
CNU Women's Women's Skipper B 6 5.2 0.29
Fall 2023 Team page Season
Oyster Bowl Women's Women's Skipper A 17 11.2 -0.37
MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's Skipper B 10 5.3 2.98
Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singlehanded Women's Singlehanded Skipper A 14 14.3 0.76
Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's Skipper B 11 11.3 2.15
Spring 2023 Team page Season
St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's Skipper TR 11 27% —
College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's Skipper B 8 10.8 2.29
College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's Skipper B 10 13.7 2.33
Owen Trophy Skipper B 12 9.3 2.22
ODU Women's Team Race Women's Skipper TR 9 67% —
Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's Skipper B 1 16.0 —
MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's Skipper B 13 7.0 2.08
Fall 2022 Team page Season
Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's Skipper B 10 10.2 2.24
Stu Nelson Women's Skipper C 12 9.1 2.08
Oyster Bowl Women's Women's Skipper A 8 10.8 -1.75
Navy Women's Women's Skipper B 9 7.2 0.34
MAISA Fall Women's Women's Skipper B 3 7.7 1.44
Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles Women's Singlehanded Skipper A 14 10.5 1.67
Spring 2022 Team page Season
Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's Skipper TR 18 56% —
ODU Women's Women's Skipper B 13 7.4 1.26
MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's Skipper TR 14 43% —
GW Invite Skipper B 14 12.9 —
Fall 2021 Team page Season
Top 9W - Susan Rogers Memorial Women's Skipper B 14 10.6 0.83
Stu Nelson Women's Skipper C 12 4.2 3.64
Riley Cup Skipper A 9 8.3 2.46
MAISA Fall Women's Women's Skipper B 10 6.5 2.39
Chesapeake Invitational Skipper B 8 14.4 1.09
2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's Skipper B 4 11.2 2.85

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →