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Top 9W - Susan Rogers Memorial

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 156
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 162
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 189
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 236
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 279
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 303
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 331
8 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 365
9 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 373
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 8 4 3 1 7 1 2 1 8 1 14 3 2 5 60 Riley Kloc '23
Addi Harris '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 5 2 1 6 1 2 1 4 1 8 11 5 11 7 65 Bridget Green '25
Gabbi Delbello '23
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 11 6 4 4 11 5 3 10 3 4 2 11 3 6 83 Amanda Majernik '22
Kiki Bruzzi '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 1 1 5 3 2 3 14 5 2 14 17 10 12 2 91 Brooke Shachoy '22
Amelia Neumann '25
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 6 3 12 2 10 18 15 8 6 10 1 2 4 3 100 Chiara Perotti Correa '22
Allison Forsyth '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 3 7 2 17 18 13 4 2 9 18 3 4 1 1 102 Morgan Sailer '22 [1-7]
Piper Holthus '25 [8-14]
Audrey Fung '24 [1-7]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 2 5 11 11 6 7 6 12 7 9 7 9 6 8 106 Sofia Segalla '25
Hannah Bast '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 7 8 13 12 13 15 5 3 5 3 5 13 5 4 111 Victroia Flatley '24
Bella Rabeni '24
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 14 9 9 7 4 12 10 9 4 13 6 17 13 9 136 Emma Aubuchon '23 [1-14]
Taylor Milefchik '22 [1-3]
Ruby Gordon '23 [4-14]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 13 12 8 9 3 8 8 13 15 6 10 12 7 13 137 Ella Withington '22
Brook Wood '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 4 11 16 5 8 6 16 14 14 2 16 6 14 10 142 Camille Mcgriff '22
Anna Mcbride '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 17 17 10 13 12 4 11 6 10 7 4 16 10 11 148 Lily Flack '25
Saige Teti '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 9 13 14 8 9 14 17 15 18 5 9 1 8 15 155 Madison Bashaw '24
Emma Gronda '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 12 16 6 16 17 9 9 18 17 12 12 8 9 12 173 Eva Blauvelt '25
Faith Southwick '23
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 16 14 17 14 5 11 13 11 11 17 13 7 17 14 180 Elizabeth Gildea '24
Grace O'Brien '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 10 15 7 10 15 16 12 7 13 16 18 14 15 17 185 Megan Geith '24
Allison Volk '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 18 18 15 15 14 10 7 17 16 11 8 15 18 18 200 Carlyn Blauvelt '23
Madeline Smith '24
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 15 10 18 18 16 17 18 16 12 15 15 18 16 16 220 Caroline Sandoval '23
Rebecca Keller '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red11111111111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams22222222222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials33333333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas44444444444444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen55555555555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen88888888888888
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs66666666666666
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers99999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks77777777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red1010101010101010101010101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams1111111111111111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials1212121212121212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1313131313131313131313131313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1414141414141414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1717171717171717171717171717
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1515151515151515151515151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1818181818181818181818181818
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1616161616161616161616161616

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · S 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →