Georgetown University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 57.68 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 (fleet 2.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–21 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 19–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 19–21 against 20.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.30 | 1.16 | 2–9 | 3.5 | −1.15 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2022-04-02 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.14 | 3.12 | 12–3 | 9.1 | +0.97 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.00 | 0.96 | 5–9 | 7.8 | −1.04 | 2.1 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.5 | 3.05 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 2.39 |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 3.04 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.9 | 3.02 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.3 | 1.53 |
| Top 9W - Susan Rogers Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.1 | 2.09 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.3 | 2.04 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 3.36 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.6 | 1.23 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.0 | 3.35 |
| MAISA South Women's Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.8 | 1.51 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corkran King Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.1 | 3.26 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 1.66 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 3.33 |
| Caboose Cup Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 2.59 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 12.0 | — |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 2.98 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 3.04 |
| GW Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.0 | 3.56 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.6 | 2.98 |
| Top 9 Regatta Women Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 10.7 | -0.59 |
| Navy Women's Open Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 2.18 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Morgan Sailer |  St. George's School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
