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Susan Rogers '75 Memorial

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 41
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 44
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 61
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 65
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 68
6 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 72
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 80
8 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 113
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 1 1 4 4 10 Aitana Mendiguren '20
Sarah Noyes '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 A 5 3 1 1 10 Sebby Turner '20
Patricia Corujo '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 4 2 2 8 16 Katherine Cox '20
Katherine Klempen '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 A 2 11 6 3 22 Daisy Holthus '21
Adeline Sutton '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 6 12 5 5 28 Marley Mais '21
Victoria Boatwright '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 12 5 12 2 31 Islay Van Dusen '23
Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 11 6 8 7 32 Lenox Butcher '20
Emelia Bartusiak '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 16 7 3 6 32 Olivia De Olazarra '22
Sally Johnson '22
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 9 4 11 9 33 Amanda Majernik '22
Jenna Weiner '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 B 3 9 10 12 34 Meredith Moran '23
Emily Hughes '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 10 10 9 11 40 Morgan Sailer '22
Celine Bennett '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 8 8 14 15 45 Anna Flaherty '20
Tess Weber '23
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 7 14 13 14 48 Jessica Mcjones '20
Kelly Milliken '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 B 14 16 7 13 50 Brooke Shachoy '22
Jana Laurendeau '23
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 15 15 15 10 55 Grace Howie '20
Cortney Rielly '20
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 13 13 16 16 58 Payton Canavan '23
Elizabeth Hupp '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 11111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 22222
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams3333
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials4444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas5555
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6666
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen7777
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers8888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 19999
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 210101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams11111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials12121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas13131313
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen14141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen15151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers16161616

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.1 kn
avg  ·  max 2.2 kn
Gusts to 6.2 kn
From SE (128°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · S 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.14 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.47)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →