George Washington University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.92 (fleet 2.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–60 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 6–28 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 20–32 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (86 matches) the record is 26–60 against 25.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship | skipper | 2.12 | 2.76 | 6–12 | 4.1 | +0.63 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | -0.73 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2023-03-04 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | -0.80 | 0–9 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.3 | >99% |
| 2022-04-02 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.09 | 2.83 | 9–5 | 6.6 | +0.74 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.09 | 2.54 | 8–10 | 6.4 | +0.45 | 0.5 | 27% |
| 2022-02-26 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.77 | 0.97 | 3–17 | 5.0 | −0.80 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.4 | 2.08 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.5 | 2.54 |
| Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 3.28 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 2.98 |
| Top 9/Women's Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 0.96 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 2.90 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.7 | -0.05 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.2 | 2.63 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 2.56 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.65 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | 0.14 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.0 | 0.78 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.8 | 1.84 |
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 2.13 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 2.07 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.7 | -2.10 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat 420's | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 2.41 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Islay Van Dusen |  Marblehead High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
