| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 34 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.479 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 8.31 | 10.66 | 9–1 | 5.2 | +2.35 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 3 | University of Pennsylvania | 8.20 | 8.70 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2 | Dartmouth College | 9.57 | 9.44 | 8–2 | 8.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 7 | U. S. Naval Academy | 7.32 | 6.95 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 5 | College of Charleston | 8.21 | 7.59 | 3–4 | 3.8 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 4 | Cornell University | 8.48 | 7.65 | 4–6 | 5.7 | −0.83 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 6 | Georgetown University | 7.75 | 6.86 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.89 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 8 | George Washington University | 5.60 | 2.60 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 3.32 | 5.68 | 9–1 | 5.2 | +2.35 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.42 | 4.77 | 9–1 | 5.2 | +2.35 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Torrey Chisari | University of Pennsylvania | 2.70 | 3.20 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Madeleine Rice | University of Pennsylvania | 2.39 | 2.89 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | U. S. Naval Academy | 1.72 | 1.35 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Ava Farley | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Eva Blauvelt | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.75 | 2.38 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 80% |
| J.J. Smith | Cornell University | 2.70 | -0.30 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Avery Canavan | George Washington University | 1.73 | -1.27 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | George Washington University | 1.46 | -1.54 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Green | Quakers | Red | Cougars | Hoyas | Midshipmen | Blue | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 4–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Green | Quakers | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Big Green | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Big Green | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Quakers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
