George Washington University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 (fleet 2.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.09 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–80 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–18 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 2–17 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 6–28 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 14–80 against 20.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.45 | 1.47 | 3–18 | 5.9 | −0.98 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2024-03-09 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.05 | 2.35 | 1–10 | 0.8 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2024-03-02 | DC Team Race / GTN | skipper | 2.13 | 1.97 | 1–7 | 1.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2023-04-15 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship | skipper | 1.87 | 2.50 | 6–12 | 4.1 | +0.63 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 1.73 | -1.27 | 0–7 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2023-03-04 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | -1.13 | 0–9 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.3 | >99% |
| 2022-02-26 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.58 | 0.79 | 3–17 | 5.0 | −0.80 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Western National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.3 | 2.78 |
| Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.8 | 2.70 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 2.74 |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.6 | 3.10 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 3.90 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.2 | 1.75 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.0 | 2.85 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.7 | 3.12 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.5 | 2.38 |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 2.84 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 0.26 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.4 | 2.36 |
| MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.4 | 1.35 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.4 | 3.17 |
| Wick Trophy Womens event Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.8 | 2.90 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 3.03 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 3.75 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Eastern Women's National Semi-final Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.7 | 3.06 |
| DC Team Race / GTN | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 1 | 15.0 | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.7 | 1.66 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.2 | 2.27 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.4 | 2.14 |
| Oyster Bowl Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.8 | 1.37 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 2.09 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.3 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.8 | 2.57 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 15.4 | 0.88 |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.7 | 2.59 |
| Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.6 | 2.88 |
| Top 9/Women's Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 0.93 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | C | 12 | 7.2 | 2.80 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | -0.02 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 5.7 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 2.19 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | C | 8 | 12.9 | -0.36 |
| Oyster Bowl - Spat | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | -0.48 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Avery Canavan |  The Prout School |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
