Oyster Bowl - Spat

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 94
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 113
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 164
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 166
5 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 190
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 209
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 1 1 4 1 1 2 7 1 1 1 1 1 22 Charlie Anderson '25
Lillian Newman '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 8 3 2 32 Heather Kerns '24
Tory Mileti '22
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 4 4 3 6 6 3 2 7 2 3 7 7 54 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Amelia Popp '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 5 9 1 10 2 8 4 3 7 7 2 4 62 Caroline Martocci '22
Hannah Davis '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 7 3 8 3 5 6 10 4 9 6 5 3 69 Megan Geith '24
Katherine Barton '23
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 11 7 9 8 4 11 3 5 5 5 6 6 80 Jack Fisher '25
Sydney Register '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 6 5 7 11 7 4 11 10 12 2 8 8 91 Genna Viggiano '22
Dexter Mueller '24
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 12 10 5 4 9 5 5 11 11 9 9 5 95 Elizabeth Gildea '24
Jefferson Elkin '24
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 10 6 10 7 12 12 12 6 4 4 4 9 96 Carlyn Blauvelt '23
Julia Christie '24
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 2 11 12 5 8 10 6 12 10 12 12 10 110 Avery Canavan '25
Mikaela Smith '22
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 8 8 11 9 11 7 9 8 8 11 11 11 112 Madeleine Rice '24
Caroline Dannacher '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 9 12 6 12 10 9 8 9 6 10 10 12 113 Aubin Hattendorf '24
Faith Southwick '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials111122223333
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2222111112121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen555566667777
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs333344445555
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers666655554444
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks444433332222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials777788889999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen888877776666
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen11111111121212121111
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs99991010101011111111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers121212121111111110101010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1010101099998888

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+1.07 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →