University of Pennsylvania '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.44 (fleet 3.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 134–69 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 6 | 56–26 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 6 | 47–25 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 31–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 15 graded regattas (203 matches) the record is 134–69 against 132.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.84 | 2.81 | 7–10 | 7.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2024-04-13 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.86 | 1.98 | 10–5 | 12.0 | −0.87 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2024-03-23 | Seahawk Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.98 | 2.78 | 15–6 | 15.7 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2024-03-16 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | 3.61 | 2–1 | 1.8 | +0.84 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 2024-03-09 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 3.68 | 9–2 | 7.6 | +0.96 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2024-03-02 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 2.13 | 13–2 | 13.7 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.63 | 2.82 | 5–6 | 4.6 | +0.19 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2023-04-15 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship | skipper | 2.63 | 2.80 | 15–3 | 14.6 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2023-04-01 | Finger Lakes Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 2.70 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 2.89 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 2.50 | 6–6 | 6.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2023-03-04 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 3.63 | 8–1 | 6.2 | +1.32 | 1.5 | 17% |
| 2022-04-02 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.06 | 1.81 | 8–6 | 8.8 | −0.26 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2022-03-19 | Kings Point Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.14 | 1.76 | 10–5 | 11.0 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2022-03-05 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.75 | 2.02 | 13–7 | 11.9 | +0.27 | 0.2 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championships Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | 2.27 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.6 | 2.37 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.0 | 3.39 |
| Susan Rogers Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.7 | 4.22 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 2.25 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.0 | 3.43 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 4.42 |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.5 | 2.53 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Conference Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 83% | — |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 3.64 |
| Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Finger Lakes Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.4 | 3.96 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | 2.00 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 15.7 | 1.35 |
| Top 9/Women's Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 0.27 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 2.25 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 3.66 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 2.50 |
| Big Red Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 3.83 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | 1.95 |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 4.49 |
| Kings Point Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl - Spat | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.3 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 1.72 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 2.55 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.7 | 1.94 |
| Big Red Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 3.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
