| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 6–3 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 4–5 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 2–7 |
| 6 |  |
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 27 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.544 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.59 ± 0.52: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Pennsylvania | 7.85 | 9.17 | 8–1 | 6.2 | +1.32 | 1.5 | 17% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 7.02 | 8.10 | 6–3 | 3.8 | +1.08 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 6.63 | 7.16 | 4–5 | 2.9 | +0.53 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 7.96 | 8.31 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 5 | U. S. Naval Academy | 7.30 | 5.95 | 2–7 | 4.5 | −1.36 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 6 | George Washington University | 6.66 | 3.66 | 0–9 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | University of Pennsylvania | 2.48 | 3.81 | 8–1 | 6.2 | +1.32 | 1.5 | 17% |
| Madeleine Rice | University of Pennsylvania | 2.30 | 3.63 | 8–1 | 6.2 | +1.32 | 1.5 | 17% |
| Lily Flack | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.88 | 2.95 | 6–3 | 3.8 | +1.08 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Eva Blauvelt | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.78 | 1.43 | 2–7 | 4.5 | −1.36 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | U. S. Naval Academy | 1.82 | 0.47 | 2–7 | 4.5 | −1.36 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Ava Farley | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.16 | 0.80 | 2–7 | 4.5 | −1.36 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Avery Canavan | George Washington University | 1.87 | -1.13 | 0–9 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Hoyas | Seahawks | Monarchs | Midshipmen | Blue | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Hoyas | Seahawks | Monarchs | Midshipmen | Blue | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–0 | ✕ | – | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–0 | – | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | – | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–2 | L | L | – | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | – |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | – | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24 |
Anna Hoffman '26 Adra Ivancich '26 Claire Dubois '23 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25 Riley Kloc '23 |
Eva Fortunato '23 Louisa Buckingham '24 Morgan Rice '25 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Leah Rickard '26 Lily Flack '25 Madison Bashaw '24 |
Emma Gronda '22 Rachel O'Neill '24 Anna Flynn '25 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Elizabeth Gildea '24 Emma Friedauer '26 Megan Geith '24 |
Isabelle Kanach '25 Allison Volk '25 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 |
Catherine Aitken '24 Linnea Forsberg '25 Maggie Schuler '25 |
|
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | Avery Canavan '25 Emma Aubuchon '23 Islay Van Dusen '23 |
Ruby Gordon '23 Sylvia Fresco '23 Elizabeth Ellis '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
