St. Mary's College of Maryland '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.72 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–41 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 4–33 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 9–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 13–41 against 15.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Callahan Team Race | skipper | 2.00 | 1.09 | 3–6 | 4.1 | −0.91 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.01 | -0.99 | 0–9 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2024-03-16 | Women's SNETR | skipper | 2.01 | -0.99 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 2.17 | 1–6 | 0.8 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 1.52 | 3–5 | 3.9 | −0.67 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2023-03-04 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | 2.94 | 6–3 | 3.8 | +1.08 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 3.26 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.9 | 2.76 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | 2.26 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 2.66 |
| Oyster Bowl Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 0.87 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.53 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 2.86 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.2 | -1.36 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Leah Rickard |  University of Rhode Island |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
