| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 8–4 |
| 6 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 5–7 |
| 7 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 5–7 |
| 8 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 4–8 |
| 9 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,158 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 57 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.424 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale University | 10.96 | 13.96 | 12–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| 6 | Tufts University | 6.84 | 7.89 | 5–7 | 3.0 | +1.04 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 5 | Tulane University | 8.26 | 9.17 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.91 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 4 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 8.21 | 8.88 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 3 | Harvard University | 9.50 | 9.66 | 8–4 | 7.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 8 | Bowdoin College | 7.24 | 7.33 | 4–8 | 3.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Boston College | 10.28 | 9.44 | 8–4 | 9.4 | −0.84 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 9 | University of South Florida | 7.07 | 5.79 | 1–8 | 2.3 | −1.28 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 7 | Brown University | 8.96 | 7.52 | 5–7 | 8.0 | −1.44 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 10 | University of Rhode Island | 5.97 | 2.97 | 0–9 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | Yale University | 3.74 | 6.74 | 12–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Emma Cowles | Yale University | 3.36 | 6.36 | 12–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.66 | 3.57 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.91 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Ava Anderson | Tulane University | 2.60 | 3.51 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.91 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Brooke Barry | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.01 | 2.67 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Cordelia Burn | Harvard University | 3.16 | 3.32 | 8–4 | 7.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Sarah Burn | Harvard University | 2.85 | 3.02 | 8–4 | 7.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Lauren Russler | Bowdoin College | 2.69 | 2.78 | 4–8 | 3.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | Brown University | 2.58 | 1.34 | 4–5 | 5.7 | −1.24 | 1.6 | 98% |
| Katie Coughlin | University of Rhode Island | 1.81 | -1.19 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Emaline Ouellette | University of Rhode Island | 1.18 | -1.82 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Eagles | Crimson | Engineers | Wave | Jumbos | Bears | Bears | Bulls | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 9–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 7–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 7–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 5–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 5–4 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 4–5 | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Eagles | Crimson | Engineers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Harvard University Crimson | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Jumbos | Bears | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Brown University Bears | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Engineers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Crimson | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Crimson | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Green Wave | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Crimson | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 41 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Engineers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Engineers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 49 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
