Harvard University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.95 (fleet 4.12) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.13 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 208–165 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 7 | 59–43 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 7 | 46–45 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 7 | 49–38 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 7 | 54–39 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 27 graded regattas (372 matches) the record is 208–164 against 212.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 23 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.21 | 3.44 | 9–7 | 8.3 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2025-04-12 | NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy | skipper | 3.26 | 2.88 | 7–7 | 7.9 | −0.38 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2025-04-05 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 4.25 | 7–3 | 5.7 | +0.89 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2025-03-29 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 3.94 | 7–8 | 5.2 | +0.78 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2025-03-22 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.42 | 10–6 | 9.4 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2025-03-15 | Southern New England Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 3.62 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.53 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 3.21 | 8–8 | 8.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.23 | 4.13 | 9–7 | 6.4 | +0.90 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.88 | 10–7 | 7.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2024-04-06 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 2.35 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −0.86 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2024-03-30 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.09 | 1.76 | 6–10 | 10.2 | −1.33 | 4.1 | >99% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 3.32 | 8–4 | 7.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2024-03-09 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 2.22 | 4–4 | 5.0 | −0.80 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.99 | 2.69 | 4–3 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.00 | 1.80 | 3–8 | 5.2 | −1.20 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 3.10 | 1.44 | 4–9 | 8.1 | −1.66 | 4.6 | >99% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.01 | 2.12 | 6–7 | 8.1 | −0.89 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 3.11 | 3.00 | 10–5 | 10.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 3.08 | 13–4 | 12.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 2.73 | 7–4 | 7.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.80 | 6–1 | 5.3 | +0.79 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.84 | 2.63 | 7–9 | 7.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 2.52 | 11–8 | 10.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.41 | 3.32 | 9–3 | 7.2 | +0.90 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.43 | 3.04 | 10–3 | 8.8 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.45 | 1.88 | 9–8 | 10.8 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 2.06 | 2.37 | 8–7 | 7.0 | +0.31 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 4.49 |
| Women's Eastern National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.9 | 3.90 |
| Southern New England Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | 3.31 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.7 | 3.89 |
| Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.6 | 4.44 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.6 | 3.26 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 3.97 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 4.57 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy 2024 | Skipper | C | 10 | 5.9 | 4.39 |
| 2024 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 4.3 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 3.92 |
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.0 | 4.21 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 5.1 | 4.55 |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.3 | 3.56 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 4.12 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.9 | 3.89 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.0 | 4.63 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 3.92 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.2 | 4.94 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.8 | 4.16 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 4.58 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 3.10 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 3.85 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.2 | 4.75 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 3.98 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | 5.70 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 3.64 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 3.84 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | C | 12 | 4.7 | 3.66 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 3.67 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.5 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Thompson Throphy | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 3.27 |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 3.43 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 52% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 77% | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 2.73 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 2.85 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.2 | 1.88 |
| The Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.4 | 2.33 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.5 | 2.64 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 3.43 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 2.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
