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Southern New England Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 13–2
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 11–4
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 11–4
4 Boston College Boston College Eagles 6–9
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4–11
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,847 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 45 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.56 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		19.91
school +0.40		Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.16
Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.26
Katherine Mcnamara / Menasha Leport 3.07		86%13–2 (87%)+0.1
2Harvard University
Crimson		28.79
school +0.20		Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 2.52
Cordelia Burn / Peyton Hadfield 3.09
Zoey Ziskind / Katherine Shin 2.83		64%11–4 (73%)+1.3
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		38.46
school +0.15		Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.33 8–4
Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.03 5–4
Brooke Schmelz / Sophia Woodbury 2.96 9–0
Brooke Schmelz / Elliott Chalcraft 3.05 2–4
Lucy Brock / Elliott Chalcraft 2.93 6–0
Brooke Barry / Tamsin Horne 2.20 3–0		57%11–4 (73%)+2.4
4Boston College
Eagles		47.81
school +0.26		Caroline Sibilly / Kennedy Laureigh 3.37
Kate Joslin / Sophia Hacket
Sara Schumann / Ainsley West		41%6–9 (40%)−0.2
5Tufts University
Jumbos		57.21
school +0.20		Maisie Macgillivray / Eloise Goedkoop 2.19
Meredith Broadus / Nicole Morikawa 2.22
Sophia Hubbard / Lilly Ladd 2.57		28%4–11 (27%)−0.2
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		67.01
school +0.12		Laura Slovensky / Charlotte Mccarthy 2.45
Julia Conneely / Allison Nystrom 2.48
Ella Demand / Celia Houston		23%0–15 (0%)−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.469.3611–48.6+0.901.513%
2Harvard University8.799.3211–49.7+0.530.531%
1Brown University9.919.9413–212.9+0.030.066%
4Boston College7.817.766–96.1−0.050.065%
5Tufts University7.217.134–114.2−0.070.066%
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy7.014.010–153.5≤−3.005.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Brooke BarryMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.333.2311–48.6+0.901.513%
Cordelia BurnHarvard University3.093.6211–49.7+0.530.531%
Meredith BroadusTufts University2.222.144–114.2−0.070.066%
Laura SlovenskyU. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-0.550–153.5≤−3.005.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy84%
12Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University21%upset
13Tufts UniversityBoston College37%upset
14Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy95%
15Harvard UniversityTufts University82%
16Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston College68%
17Brown UniversityTufts University94%
18Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy80%
19Boston CollegeHarvard University28%upset
110Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University74%
111Brown UniversityHarvard University76%
112Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy69%
113Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology55%
114Tufts UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy55%
115Brown UniversityBoston College89%
216Harvard UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy86%
217Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology79%
218Boston CollegeTufts University65%
219Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy95%
220Harvard UniversityTufts University83%
221Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston College66%
222Brown UniversityTufts University94%
223Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy80%
224Harvard UniversityBoston College73%
225Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University74%
226Brown UniversityHarvard University75%
227Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy69%
228Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology56%
229Tufts UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy55%
230Brown UniversityBoston College89%
331Harvard UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy86%
332Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology79%
333Boston CollegeTufts University65%
334Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy95%
335Harvard UniversityTufts University84%
336Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston College66%
337Brown UniversityTufts University94%
338Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy80%
339Harvard UniversityBoston College73%
340Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University74%
341Harvard UniversityBrown University26%upset
342Boston CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy69%
343Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvard University43%upset
344Tufts UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy54%
345Brown UniversityBoston College89%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonEngineersEaglesJumbosBears
Brown University Bears4–1✕WLWWW
Harvard University Crimson3–2L✕WLWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–1WL✕WWW
Boston College Eagles2–3LWL✕LW
Tufts University Jumbos2–3LLLW✕W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonEngineersEaglesJumbosBears
Brown University Bears5–0✕WWWWW
Harvard University Crimson4–1L✕WWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–2LL✕WWW
Boston College Eagles2–3LLL✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos1–4LLLL✕W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonEngineersEaglesJumbosBears
Brown University Bears4–1✕LWWWW
Harvard University Crimson4–1W✕LWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–1LW✕WWW
Boston College Eagles2–3LLL✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos1–4LLLL✕W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
5 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
7 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-5
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
12 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
13 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-5-6
15 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
16 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-5
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
18 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
20 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
22 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
23 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
24 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
26 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
27 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
28 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
29 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-5-6
30 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
31 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
32 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
33 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
34 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
35 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
36 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
37 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
38 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
39 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
40 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-6
41 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-6
42 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
43 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
44 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-4-6
45 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/15/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.9 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1021.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →