U. S. Coast Guard Academy '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 55.21 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 11 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.11) | 167 of 328 | +0.00 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–85 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 12–22 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 10–32 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 16–19 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 9–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (132 matches) the record is 47–85 against 45.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler | skipper | 2.84 | 1.71 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.13 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2026-03-28 | Callahan Trophy | skipper | 2.84 | 2.87 | 7–2 | 7.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-14 | CofC Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 2.35 | 4–12 | 5.3 | −0.51 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2025-04-12 | NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.56 | 2.67 | 1–8 | 0.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2025-03-29 | Callahan Trophy | skipper | 2.51 | 2.24 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 2025-03-22 | KP Open Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 3.46 | 6–6 | 4.1 | +1.03 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2025-03-15 | Southern New England Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | -0.52 | 0–15 | 3.5 | ≤−3.00 | 5.7 | >99% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.37 | 2.87 | 4–6 | 3.1 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2024-04-06 | Bowdoin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 2.31 | 6–3 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 2.47 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2024-03-16 | Women's SNETR | skipper | 2.21 | 2.60 | 5–7 | 4.2 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.06 | 1.41 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.65 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 1.47 | 3.45 | 7–6 | 2.5 | +1.98 | 6.9 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.0 | 2.47 |
| CofC Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Callahan Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 3.08 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.6 | 3.16 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2025 Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.5 | 2.78 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2025 | Skipper | C | 3 | 6.3 | 3.91 |
| The 27th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.4 | 3.63 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 3.71 |
| KP Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Callahan Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.1 | 3.09 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.7 | 2.15 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2024 Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 3.24 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.9 | 1.82 |
| The 26th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 2.37 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's SNETR Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 3.44 |
| Eastern Women's National Semi-final Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.0 | 2.85 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Bowdoin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.0 | 3.02 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.5 | 2.45 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.1 | 2.60 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 2.71 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.6 | 2.63 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 2.93 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.2 | 3.45 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.4 | 2.08 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.6 | 2.14 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 1.65 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.2 | 2.10 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Julia Conneely |  H. B. Plant High School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
