| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,921 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 18 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.473 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 3 | 7.24 school +0.31 | Lucy Meagher / Katharine Benagh 2.58 Katherine Mcgagh / Maren Matthews 1.95 Tavia Smith / Elyssa Franklin 2.38 | 50% | 7–2 (78%) | +2.5 |
| 2 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2 | 7.88 school +0.09 | Emily Bornarth / Allison Nystrom 3.04 Julia Conneely / Charlotte Mccarthy 2.32 Laura Slovensky / Mia Quinlan 2.40 | 67% | 6–3 (67%) | −0.0 |
| 3 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 1 | 8.14 home +0.42 | Rebecca Schill / Luisa Louchheim 2.40 Kyra Phelan / Katharine Kurtz 2.52 Lauren Russler / Maizie Bartlett 2.74 | 74% | 5–4 (56%) | −1.6 |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 4 | 5.44 school −0.10 | Kytalin Hendrickson / Ursula Budd 2.42 Katie Coughlin / Kaylee Good 1.80 Emaline Ouellette / Brigette Alves 1.29 | 9% | 0–9 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 7.24 | 8.78 | 7–2 | 4.5 | +1.54 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 2 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.88 | 7.87 | 6–3 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | Bowdoin College | 8.14 | 7.18 | 5–4 | 6.6 | −0.97 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island | 5.44 | 2.44 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Meagher | Roger Williams University | 2.58 | 4.12 | 7–2 | 4.5 | +1.54 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Katherine Mcgagh | Roger Williams University | 1.95 | 3.49 | 7–2 | 4.5 | +1.54 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Laura Slovensky | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.40 | 2.39 | 6–3 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Lauren Russler | Bowdoin College | 2.74 | 1.77 | 5–4 | 6.6 | −0.97 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Katie Coughlin | University of Rhode Island | 1.80 | -1.20 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Emaline Ouellette | University of Rhode Island | 1.29 | -1.71 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | Bears | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–1 | ✕ | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 2–1 | W | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | Bears | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bears | Bears | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Katherine Mcgagh '26 Lucy Meagher '27 Tavia Smith '27 |
Maren Matthews '26 Katharine Benagh '24 Elyssa Franklin '26 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Emily Bornarth '24 Julia Conneely '26 Laura Slovensky '25 |
Allison Nystrom '26 Charlotte Mccarthy '25 Mia Quinlan '24 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27 |
Katharine Kurtz '24 Maizie Bartlett '27 Luisa Louchheim '25 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Emaline Ouellette '28 Katie Coughlin '24 Kytalin Hendrickson '26 |
Brigette Alves '25 Kaylee Good '26 Ursula Budd '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
